Vice President Kamala Harris is leading former President Donald Trump by eight percentage points among likely voters in Virginia, according to a recent Washington Post-Schar School poll. This marks a significant turnaround in the state, as Trump had been looking to flip Virginia red after losing in 2016 and 2020. The poll, conducted before the two candidates debated in Philadelphia, showed Harris leading Trump by 50% to 42% with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. This shift in the Democratic ticket was highlighted by Harris replacing President Biden as her party’s nominee, and comes after a Fox News poll in June had shown Biden and Trump in a dead heat, despite Biden winning Virginia by over 10 points in 2020.
Despite Virginia historically voting Democrat in recent elections, the Republican Party has been making progress in the state. The 2021 election of Gov. Glenn Youngkin marked the first time a Republican had been elected to the governorship since 2009. In addition, the GOP saw further success in the 2022 midterms and the state’s 2023 off-year elections. However, the Washington Post-Schar School poll shows that Trump does not have a significant lead on any issue measured in the survey, unlike national polls where he enjoys some advantage on the economy, immigration, and fighting crime. Dean Mark Rozell of the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University noted that Trump’s path to the presidency does not run through Virginia, especially given Harris’ lead and lack of issue advantage for Trump in the state.
In terms of demographic breakdowns, Harris performed well among female Virginia voters, with 55% saying they would vote for her compared to 37% for Trump. She also garnered strong support among Black voters in the state, with 73% backing her. White voters without college degrees favored Trump by a significant margin, while those with college degrees swung heavily towards Harris. Geographically, Harris polled best in the close-in Washington, D.C., suburbs, Northern Virginia exurbs, and the Richmond area. Trump’s strongest support was in the more rural central and western parts of Virginia, while the Tidewater region in Eastern Virginia tipped towards Harris.
Looking at favorability ratings, 53% of Virginians have an unfavorable impression of former President Trump, while 39% view him favorably. In contrast, Harris is net popular with 49% favorable and 42% unfavorable. The poll was conducted among a random sample of 1,005 registered voters in Virginia, with 65% reached by live callers on cellphones, 14% on landlines, and 21% via cellphone text to-web. Democrats made up 31% of respondents compared to 28% Republicans, with Independents accounting for 30%. Despite Trump’s attempts to flip Virginia red and the Republican Party’s recent successes in the state, the Washington Post-Schar School poll indicates a significant lead for Vice President Kamala Harris among likely voters in Virginia, with Trump not holding an advantage on any measured issue.
