The latest polling shows that former President Trump and Vice President Harris are in tight races across the sunbelt, with Harris leading Trump by five points in Arizona and two points in North Carolina. Trump carried North Carolina in both his 2016 and 2020 contests, making Harris’s lead particularly concerning for Republicans. The polls previously considered these states as runaways for Trump, but with President Biden no longer at the top of the ticket, the races have become much closer.
A survey of registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Nevada found some good news for Trump. In Georgia, a Republican stronghold, Trump led Harris by four points, while in Nevada, a state he previously lost in 2016 and 2020, he led by a margin of 48% to 47%. The survey also highlighted that 43% of voters thought Harris was “too liberal or progressive,” while only 33% said the same about Trump, indicating differing perceptions of the two candidates.
On key issues, more voters in the surveyed states believed Trump would do a better job on the economy and immigration, leading Harris by significant margins. However, Harris had a substantial lead on the issue of abortion. Pollster Carly Cooperman noted that there was a lot of enthusiasm and excitement for Harris’s candidacy, which was contributing to her performance in the polls. The survey also showed that voters were paying a lot of attention to the race, suggesting that opinions were solidifying as the campaign progressed.
The bottom of the ticket also received attention in the poll, with Senator JD Vance and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz being viewed favorably and unfavorably by voters. Vance had a 36% favorability rating and 45% unfavorable, while Walz had a 38% favorability and 35% unfavorable rating. These numbers indicate that the down-ballot candidates will also play a role in shaping the outcomes of the races in these states.
The changing dynamics of the electoral map were highlighted by the poll results, showing that Harris was not definitively winning the races in Arizona and North Carolina but was opening up a new path for her candidacy. This shift was particularly notable in states like Georgia, which Trump lost in 2020 but was now leading in against Harris. The significance of these changes was underscored by the competitiveness of key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, which Trump was losing by four points, setting the stage for highly contested races between the two candidates in 2024.
