The race for Congress in the lower Hudson Valley is extremely close, with Republican Rep. Mike Lawler leading Democratic ex-Rep. Mondaire Jones by just 1 point in a new poll. The Working Families Party candidate Anthony Frascone receives minimal support, leaving the remainder of voters undecided. The outcome of this race is still uncertain, with Lawler’s narrow lead falling within the survey’s margin of error, making it anyone’s game. In the nearby 18th District, Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan holds a slight lead over Republican Alison Espito, making both races competitive with significant implications for the House of Representatives.
Following the 2022 midterms, Republicans have regained control of the House majority, thanks in part to victories in New York that included Lawler’s win. Voter turnout will play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the Lawler-Jones race, as younger voters tend to support Jones while older voters favor Lawler. Jones also leads among voters under 40 and those in their 40s but trails among voters over 50. Concerns have been raised regarding the Working Families Party candidate potentially siphoning votes from Jones and affecting the final outcome of the election.
Despite the tight race, Lawler has a slightly higher favorability rating in the district compared to Jones, with a significant gender gap emerging in favor of Ryan in the 18th District. Men tend to support Esposito, while women favor Ryan. In terms of the presidential election at the top of the ticket, both districts are evenly split between support for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. The top concerns for voters in each district vary, with the economy being a primary issue for both, followed by immigration, housing affordability, crime, and threats to democracy.
Overall, the key issues for voters in the 17th and 18th Districts will influence their decisions at the ballot box, with a majority considering the number of migrants seeking sanctuary in the United States as a crisis. The surveys were conducted online and via text with 630 likely voters in each district, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points for each poll. The results of these closely contested races will impact the balance of power in the House of Representatives and could have far-reaching consequences for the region and beyond.
