In the crucial battleground Senate races for the 2024 election, Democrats hold a major advantage in Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, with leads in the polls for the Senate races. However, President Biden is not faring as well in these states, trailing former President Trump in almost every battleground state. Incumbent Democratic Senators and likely nominees in these states are leading their Republican opponents, but Biden is facing a tough challenge against Trump.
In Pennsylvania, incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey leads Republican Dave McCormick by a margin of 46% to 41%. In Wisconsin, incumbent Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin leads Republican Eric Hovde 49% to 40%. The races in Arizona and Nevada show a closer margin, with likely Democratic nominee Ruben Gallego leading Republican Kari Lake 45% to 41%, and incumbent Democratic Senator Jacky Rosen leading Republican Sam Brown 40% to 38%. Trump is leading Biden in head-to-head matchups in almost every battleground state.
Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.’s inclusion in the polls is boosting Trump’s advantage in some states. Trump leads Biden in Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia, and Michigan. However, Biden holds a slight lead in Wisconsin at 47% to 45%. Trump’s lead is also bolstered by Kennedy’s presence in the polls, with voters showing support for the former president over Biden and Kennedy in some states.
Minority groups in battleground states are showing a trend away from Biden and towards either Trump or Kennedy. Hispanic voters are split between Biden and Trump, with some supporting Kennedy as well. Black voters still show strong support for Biden, but there is some support for Trump and Kennedy among this group. Overall, approval ratings for Biden are low in battleground states, with just 36% approving of his job as president.
In the Senate races, Republicans have pickup opportunities in Montana, Ohio, West Virginia, Michigan, and Maryland, which could potentially shift the balance of power in the Senate. With Democrats holding a narrow one-seat margin in the Senate, Republicans only need to win two of these races and hold their other seats to win control of the chamber. If Trump wins the White House, Republicans may only need to win one race to have control of the chamber, as his vice president would serve as the tie-breaking vote. The outcome of these races will have significant implications for the balance of power in Washington.
