Vice President Kamala Harris has obtained a slight lead over former President Donald Trump in national polling, despite trailing on key issues for voters. A recent Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll showed Harris with 49% support compared to Trump’s 45% in a one-on-one matchup, which dropped to 47% to 44% when independent candidates were included. This is a notable shift from previous polling in July, where Trump was at 43%, President Biden at 42%, and independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 9%.
While Harris may lead in national polling, Trump receives higher marks from voters on crucial issues like the economy, inflation, immigration, crime and safety, and the Israel-Hamas war. On the other hand, Harris is favored for issues such as safeguarding democracy, health care, abortion, gun violence, Supreme Court appointments, and race relations. The economy was identified as the top concern for voters, followed by inflation, protecting democracy, immigration, health care, crime and safety, abortion, gun violence, Supreme Court appointments, the Israel-Hamas war, and race relations.
To bolster her support on economic issues, Harris proposed measures to tackle the cost of living, including a ban on “price-gouging,” tax credits for homebuyers, and enhanced child tax credits. However, Trump and some economists criticized her approach to combating price gouging, equating it with price controls. When voters were asked to rate the running mates, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz was more favorably viewed than Sen. JD Vance, the GOP VP nominee. Satisfaction with the Democratic candidate has improved significantly, with 60% being satisfied with the Harris v Trump option compared to 20% with the Biden v Trump option.
The Democratic base has shown stronger support for Harris compared to Biden, particularly among younger voters and black voters. Polls have indicated similar trends, with Harris leading Trump in the RealClearPolitics aggregate of national polling by a slim margin. In an Electoral College map without toss-ups, Trump narrowly edges out a victory with 276 votes to 262, highlighting the competitive nature of the race. The Post-ABC-Ipsos poll, conducted among 1,901 registered voters, showed Harris with a 25-point advantage over Trump among voters under 40 and increased support among black voters.
The upcoming Democratic National Convention in Chicago presents an opportunity for Harris to further solidify her position as the party’s nominee. With the election just around 80 days away, Democrats are hopeful that the convention will provide a boost for Harris. Despite the closeness of the race and varying results from different polls regarding the impact of including third-party candidates, Harris’s campaign continues to focus on key issues and strategies to maintain and expand her lead over Trump.
