Renowned American political historian Allen Lichtman, who has accurately predicted the outcome of nine out of ten US presidential elections since 1984, was left speechless when his prediction that Kamala Harris would win the presidency turned out to be incorrect. He expressed his disbelief on a live stream as the results of a landslide victory by Donald Trump began to emerge. Along with his son, Sam, he shared his stunned reactions as the election results unfolded, with Sam admitting that he was losing hope as media outlets called Pennsylvania for Trump.
Lichtman, widely known as the “Nostradamus” of US presidential elections, had placed his bets on Harris this year despite polling data indicating a potential re-election for Trump. He is the co-creator of the “Keys to the White House” metric, which assesses 13 categories to predict the prospects of major party candidates. According to Lichtman, Harris had the advantage in eight of the metrics compared to Trump’s three. However, as the live stream drew to a close and Trump appeared to be ahead in all seven swing states, Lichtman admitted there was nothing positive for Harris in the data and expressed concern about the future of democracy.
Lichtman’s frustration was evident as he rubbed his eyes and remarked that he had no interviews scheduled the following day. He lamented the potential loss of democracy and expressed a bleak outlook on the situation, suggesting that the recovery of democracy often required the defeat of dictators in wars. Sam Lichtman, on the other hand, maintained a more hopeful perspective, stating that he hoped Trump would serve his term and the country could move forward without him. Allen Lichtman emphasized the importance of democracy and the need to never give up hope despite the challenges it may face.
The elder Lichtman’s accuracy in predicting election outcomes has earned him the nickname of the “Nostradamus” of elections, but this time his prediction did not hold true. Despite his disappointment, he reflected on the fragile nature of democracy and the decline of democratic values around the world in the 21st century. The live stream ended with Lichtman expressing his disbelief at the unfolding events, leaving viewers with a sense of uncertainty about the future of American democracy and the role of the US in global politics. Ultimately, Lichtman’s failed prediction served as a sobering reminder of the unpredictability of elections and the importance of remaining vigilant in defending democratic principles.
