In a major upset to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s main opposition party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), retained control over key cities and made significant gains in Sunday’s local elections. With more than 90% of ballots counted, incumbent Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu was leading by a wide margin in Turkey’s largest city, while Ankara’s mayor, Mansur Yavas, won with a significant 25-point difference over his challenger. The CHP won in 36 of Turkey’s 81 provinces, making it their greatest electoral victory since Erdogan came to power two decades ago. Erdogan acknowledged the setback in a speech, promising self-criticism and the correction of mistakes.
The local elections were seen as a barometer of Erdogan’s popularity as he aimed to win back control of key urban areas lost to the opposition in previous elections. The CHP’s victories in Ankara and Istanbul in 2019 had challenged Erdogan’s perceived invincibility. The main battleground for Erdogan was Istanbul, a city where he began his political career as mayor in 1994. Following the results, CHP leader Ozgur Ozel stated that the voters had chosen to establish a new political order in Turkey, indicating a shift away from the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) led by Erdogan.
The surprising outcome of the elections was attributed to voter dissatisfaction with the economic malaise in Turkey, with many households struggling to afford basic goods due to skyrocketing inflation. AKP supporters either abstained from voting or chose alternative parties due to economic concerns, leading to a lower turnout compared to previous elections. Analysts pointed out that voters prioritized the economy over ideological loyalties, resulting in the unprecedented victory for the opposition. While the CHP celebrated their success, violence marred the elections in some areas with reports of casualties.
The victory of Imamoglu in Istanbul, a potential future challenger to Erdogan, highlighted the divisions within the six-party opposition alliance that had failed to dislodge Erdogan in the previous year’s election. The resurgence of the New Welfare Party (YRP) as an alternative for disillusioned AKP supporters added another layer to the changing political landscape in Turkey. In the southeastern Kurdish-populated regions, the DEM Party was projected to win several municipalities, though the government’s history of removing elected pro-Kurdish mayors raised doubts about their ability to retain these positions. The outcome has positioned Imamoglu as a possible leader of the opposition for the next presidential election in 2028.
Erdogan’s two-decade-long rule in Turkey has been marked by efforts to push for a new constitution reflecting conservative values and potentially extending his term beyond 2028. The electoral setback in the local elections may prompt Erdogan to reconsider his approach and focus on addressing the economic challenges faced by Turkish citizens. The unexpected results have signaled a shift in Turkish politics, with the opposition gaining ground and setting the stage for potential leadership changes in the coming years. The outcome of the local elections has reshaped the political landscape in Turkey and raised questions about the future direction of the country under Erdogan’s leadership.
