The Russian military recently launched an offensive into the Kharkiv region in Ukraine, aiming to threaten the country’s second most populous city and draw Ukrainian resources away from other fronts. While Russian forces have made some advances, Ukraine is working to stabilize the front line and prevent a major breakthrough. Despite receiving aid from the United States, Ukraine continues to face challenges including lack of ammunition, manpower, and fortifications.
Russia’s goal is not to take Kharkiv but to menace it by advancing towards the city and threatening it with artillery. By drawing Ukrainian reserves to defend Kharkiv, Russian forces aim to weaken other parts of the front line. Ukraine has redeployed some units from Donetsk to Kharkiv and is sending reinforcements to other areas. Russian pressure has also been applied in Kupiansk and the southern region of Zaporizhzhia, with potential incursions in other regions to come.
The situation in Ukraine has been exacerbated by a lack of sufficient forces, ammunition, and manpower. Ukraine has struggled to replace losses in its infantry, leading to many brigades being understrength and soldiers being over the age of 40. Recent mobilization laws aim to address the manpower issue, but improvements will take time to materialize. Ukraine’s military response to Russian breakthroughs often involves moving around elite units and deploying individual battalions piecemeal, leading to short-term solutions with long-term consequences.
Russia has managed to address its manpower problems and recruits approximately 30,000 contract servicemen a month. While Russia has a quantitative edge with its forces, leadership losses have limited its ability to conduct larger-scale operations. Equipment shortages are also expected in 2025 as Russia burns through stored equipment. The passage of the U.S. aid bill has provided Ukraine with resources to hold and potentially restore its offensive potential, offering an opportunity for the country to limit Russian gains and begin to diminish Moscow’s relative advantage in 2025.
The future for Ukraine hinges on effectively managing forces, addressing manpower deficits, and establishing proper defenses. Ukraine will need to defend itself while working to reconstitute its military in the coming months. The West, which provides significant support to Ukraine, will also play a crucial role in determining how the situation unfolds. If Ukraine can successfully limit Russia to modest gains this year, Moscow’s window of opportunity may begin to close, leading to a potential shift in the balance of power in 2025.
