The recent decision by Spain, Norway, and Ireland to recognize an independent Palestinian state represents a growing wave of rejection against Israel’s far-right government, which is focused on fighting Hamas in Gaza rather than working towards a peaceful future with non-Hamas Palestinians. While over 140 countries and the Holy See have recognized Palestinians’ right to statehood, Western European countries and the U.S. had previously resisted, preferring a peace settlement between the two parties instead. This shift in recognition indicates a potential for progress towards a two-state solution.
The practical implications of these diplomatic recognitions are uncertain. Yohanan Plesner of the Israel Democracy Institute believes that in the short-term, these actions will not sway the Israeli public, especially in the aftermath of recent violent acts by Hamas. The lack of mention of demilitarization or Palestinian obligations to reject Hamas in these recognitions may lead to rejection from the Israeli population. However, in the long-term, such diplomatic shocks could push opposition leaders in Israel to break free from the influence of Prime Minister Netanyahu and advocate for a two-state solution that Israel can accept.
Failure to move towards a two-state solution could have serious consequences for Israel. Craig Charney, a pollster with experience in apartheid-era South Africa, compares the current situation to the isolation of South Africa’s apartheid regime, which started with a voluntary arms embargo and escalated to a broad economic, military, and travel embargo. If Israel does not change its course, these recent recognitions of a Palestinian state by European nations may evolve into a significant international backlash, mirroring the growing opposition to apartheid in South Africa.
The potential for a successful resolution lies in the ability of Israeli opposition leaders to shift from the current status quo dominated by Prime Minister Netanyahu. Signs of such a shift are already emerging, suggesting that there may be a path towards a peace agreement that satisfies the needs of both Israelis and Palestinians. However, the journey towards a two-state solution may be challenging and painful, as seen in the case of apartheid in South Africa, where a long process of isolation and international pressure ultimately led to the emergence of leaders who were able to end the oppressive regime.
Despite these challenges, the recent recognition of a Palestinian state by key European nations signals a significant shift in international attitudes towards the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The emphasis on Palestinian statehood and the increasing pressure on Israel to change its approach reflect a growing desire for a resolution that respects the rights and aspirations of both communities. The recognition of a Palestinian state with undefined borders raises questions about the practical implications of these diplomatic gestures and their potential to promote lasting peace in the region.
