The current level of mistrust between Chinese and American military intentions is deep, making trust-building exercises difficult. General Anthony Cotton of the U.S. nuclear forces suggested that China’s rapid nuclear expansion may indicate that its no-first-use policy is no longer credible. The Pentagon also stated in a report that China might consider using nuclear weapons first during a crisis if it involves the survival of Mr. Xi’s regime, such as a war with Taiwan. It is unclear how China would respond if its nuclear forces were attacked during a conflict, raising questions about Beijing’s nuclear use in such a scenario.
Dialogue and diplomacy between Beijing and Washington could help them understand each other’s nuclear policies better and address points of contention. By discussing concerns and sharing perspectives, the two nations can work towards a more credible and transparent no-first-use commitment. While reaching a comprehensive agreement may prove challenging, engaging in talks can lay the groundwork for future arms control agreements. New START, the remaining major arms control agreement between the U.S. and Russia, was established on the basis of earlier treaties, showing the potential for progress in nuclear diplomacy.
Under President Xi, China seems to have moved away from its policy of minimum deterrence, signaling a shift in its nuclear strategy. The Biden administration’s commitment to arms control presents an opportunity to seek common ground with Beijing and negotiate new agreements for a safer global future. Despite the complexities of nuclear diplomacy, dialogue and cooperation between the two countries are crucial in addressing mutual concerns and advancing disarmament efforts. This series is sponsored through philanthropic grants and the Times retains editorial control over the content.
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