In Israel, Benny Gantz, one of the few leaders who could potentially unseat Benjamin Netanyahu, has chosen to remain in the emergency war coalition to maintain stability and act as a counterweight to Netanyahu’s extremist coalition partners. While he initially entered politics to challenge Netanyahu, Gantz and his party have now become crucial to Netanyahu’s political survival. Despite Gantz’s presence, Netanyahu’s coalition remains unstable, facing a potential crisis over military draft exemptions for ultra-Orthodox religious men, which could divide the ruling coalition between hawks and religious leaders.
A new threat to Netanyahu’s position comes from the far right, particularly from Itamar Ben-Gvir, who has criticized Netanyahu for being too soft on Hamas and too deferential to U.S. calls for restraint. Ben-Gvir’s Jewish Power party was the only faction in the coalition to vote against a cease-fire deal, and he has threatened to withdraw his party from the coalition if a more comprehensive agreement is reached. Netanyahu’s fear of being outflanked from the right may explain his recent acrimonious spat with the Biden administration, despite Israel’s dependence on U.S. military aid.
Within Netanyahu’s Likud party, there are whispers of succession planning for “the day after Bibi.” Some politicians, like Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and former Jerusalem mayor Nir Barkat, have been positioning themselves as potential successors. Gallant has taken a hawkish stance on the war to appeal to right-wing voters, while Barkat has criticized Netanyahu for mishandling the economic crisis that has accompanied the conflict. While many Likud members support Netanyahu’s right-wing populism, some more moderate members have grown tired of his leadership.
The ongoing military conflict and political maneuvering have highlighted the challenges facing Netanyahu’s unstable coalition. The looming crisis over military draft exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men, as well as threats from the far right and rumors of succession within Likud, all contribute to the fragile nature of Netanyahu’s government. While Gantz’s presence has provided a sense of stability and legitimacy to the coalition, internal divisions and external pressures continue to pose threats to Netanyahu’s leadership.
Mr. Netanyahu’s decision to maintain a confrontational stance towards the Biden administration, despite Israel’s reliance on U.S. military aid, may be driven more by personal and political considerations than strategic imperatives. His desire to keep the conflict going and rally his hard-line base may play a role in his aggressive stance towards international pressure. The political dynamics within Likud, as well as the broader challenges facing Israel’s government, suggest that Netanyahu’s position remains precarious despite his long-standing leadership.
As political rivalries and external pressures continue to test Netanyahu’s leadership, the future of Israel’s government remains uncertain. The competing interests within the ruling coalition, the emergence of far-right challengers, and internal dissent within Likud all point to a complex and potentially volatile political landscape. Whether Netanyahu can navigate these challenges and maintain his grip on power, or if a new leader will emerge to take his place, remains to be seen in the coming months and years.
