Democratic Congressman Adam Schiff is currently leading in the race for California’s open Senate seat, according to a poll released by the University of California Berkeley. Schiff has the support of 53 percent of likely voters, while his Republican challenger Steve Garvey trails behind with 33 percent of the vote. The poll, conducted from July 31 to August 11, revealed that partisan lines were a significant factor in selecting a Senate candidate, with Schiff garnering support from 84 percent of registered Democrats and Garvey receiving 88 percent of registered Republicans’ backing.
Respondents in the UC Berkeley poll were largely aligned with their political party when choosing a Senate candidate, as evidenced by the 88 percent of respondents who described themselves as strongly conservative supporting Garvey, while 94 percent of strongly liberal Californians favored Schiff. Mark DiCamillo, director of UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies Poll, noted that due to the Democrats and liberals outnumbering Republicans and conservatives in California, Schiff has a considerable advantage in the race. The survey also highlighted that 55 percent of respondents deemed a candidate’s stance on abortion rights important when deciding who to support, with Schiff being a vocal supporter of abortion access compared to Garvey’s personal stance against abortion.
Immigration policy emerged as another key factor for California voters, with 44 percent of likely voters indicating that they are looking for a candidate who supports tougher immigration laws. Despite this, only 21 percent of likely voters supporting Schiff viewed immigration policy as a top priority, while 84 percent of Garvey’s backers considered tougher immigration laws essential. Schiff, who has been running a strong campaign since announcing his bid to replace late Senator Dianne Feinstein, has consistently led the race by a significant margin, with FiveThirtyEight, Real Clear Politics, and the Public Policy Institute of California polls all showing him with a substantial lead over Garvey.
In California’s unique primary election system, the top two finishers advance to the general election, regardless of party affiliation. Schiff and Garvey secured the top two slots in the Senate primary, beating out other Democratic and Republican candidates. Schiff’s solid lead in the polls has been consistent throughout the campaign, with surveys conducted by various organizations consistently showing him with a double-digit lead over Garvey. As the November election approaches, Schiff’s support among Democrats and liberals in California, as well as his positions on key issues like abortion rights, continue to position him as the frontrunner for the open Senate seat.
Despite Garvey trailing behind Schiff in the polls, he remains competitive in the race for California’s Senate seat. The former professional baseball star has garnered support from registered Republicans, conservatives, and likely voters who prioritize tougher immigration laws, showcasing his appeal to certain segments of the electorate. While Schiff maintains a significant lead overall, the race is not yet over, and with the election still months away, both candidates have time to make their case to voters and potentially shift the dynamics of the competition. The November election will ultimately determine who will fill the open Senate seat, with Schiff currently holding a clear advantage according to the latest polling data.
