In a new Fox News poll, former President Donald Trump has retaken the lead from Vice President Kamala Harris in Arizona, a key battleground state in the 2020 election. Contested by seven other states, Arizona played a crucial role in Biden’s victory over Trump in the previous election, marking a shift in the state’s political landscape. Trump’s current lead of 3 percentage points over Harris reflects shifts in key demographics, including a narrowing advantage among Hispanic registered voters and women. The poll conducted among 1,021 Arizona registered voters from September 20 to September 24 showed Trump leading Harris in a head-to-head matchup and in a race that includes third-party candidates.
Notably, the poll revealed a significant 25-point swing in Trump’s favor among voters under 30 years old in Arizona. In contrast to the August poll where Harris led by 13 points in this demographic, the new poll shows Trump leading by 12 points, marking a considerable shift in youth support. The margin of error for registered voters is 3%, highlighting the tight competition between the two candidates in the state. This news comes in the backdrop of a contentious political climate surrounding the 2020 election and Trump’s claims of voter fraud, which continue to influence public opinion and shape electoral outcomes.
In addition to the presidential race, the poll also examined the Senate race in Arizona between Trump-endorsed Republican candidate Kari Lake and Democratic candidate Ruben Gallego. The results showed Gallego, a U.S. congressman, leading Lake by a significant margin among both registered and likely voters. Despite Lake’s alignment with Trump’s viewpoints and allegations of election fraud, the polls indicate a strong preference for Gallego among Arizona voters. These findings underscore the complex dynamics at play in Arizona’s political landscape and the varying degrees of support for different candidates across party lines.
While the Fox News poll demonstrates Trump’s resurgence in Arizona and his lead over Harris, other recent polls have presented contrasting results. A Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll released on the same day showed Harris with a 3-point advantage over Trump in the state, complicating the overall picture of the presidential race. This disparity in polling outcomes highlights the volatility of public opinion and the challenges of predicting electoral outcomes with certainty, especially in closely contested states like Arizona. As the campaign season progresses, further shifts in support and voter preferences are likely to occur, influencing the final election results.
The polling data from Arizona suggests a dead heat between Trump and Harris, with an average of recent polls showing a narrow lead for the former president. The margin of error for these polls, typically around 3-4%, indicates the uncertainty surrounding the electoral landscape and the potential for unforeseen shifts in voter sentiment. With the presidential race poised to be a tight contest in Arizona and other battleground states, both campaigns are expected to intensify their efforts to secure support and mobilize voters ahead of the election. The dynamics of the current political climate, shaped by ongoing debates over election integrity and the legacy of the 2020 election, will continue to play a decisive role in shaping the outcome of the upcoming election in November.
