The content discusses the political dynamics surrounding Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu following a deadly Hamas-led attack on Israel last October. Netanyahu’s poll ratings plummeted due to criticism of his security failure during the attack. However, a confrontation between Israel and Iran has helped shift public attention away from this issue. Netanyahu’s domestic position has strengthened, partially attributed to Israel’s conflict with Iran, as he presents himself as the only politician capable of standing up to Iran.
While Netanyahu faces criticism for his handling of the Gaza war, Israelis have more trust in his approach to Iran. He is seen as cautiously navigating the situation to keep Iran at bay while avoiding outright war. Netanyahu has a reputation for recovering his electoral advantage after falling behind in the polls. However, some long-term analysts are cautious about predicting his success in the next election, as other domestic crises may arise that could impact his standing.
Some factors may contribute to Netanyahu’s continued revival. Anger over security failures has been directed towards other political and military leaders as well. The protest movement against his government, while significant, lacks a unifying rallying cry and some factions are focused on specific goals such as securing the release of Israeli hostages held in Gaza or removing the ultra-Orthodox exemption from military service. Netanyahu’s primary rival, Benny Gantz, has not provided a clear alternative strategy to Netanyahu’s wartime approach.
The ongoing Gaza war has the potential to create political and social ruptures in Israel similar to the impact of the Yom Kippur war in 1973. Military reservists returning from the Yom Kippur war played a role in driving opposition to the government at the time. However, the Gaza war has lasted months and may continue for months more, making it difficult for voters to openly protest against Netanyahu. There is a sense among the public that this is not the time for a new election due to the ongoing conflict and displacement of Israelis from their homes near Gaza.
Netanyahu’s recovery in the polls has been partially attributed to the tensions between Israel and Iran, which have shifted domestic attention away from his perceived failings in the Gaza war. Despite trailing the main opposition bloc, Netanyahu’s gap in the polls has narrowed since October. Analysts believe that Netanyahu’s approach to keeping Iran at bay without provoking war has garnered him more trust from the Israeli public. The ongoing conflict has provided Netanyahu with an opportunity to showcase his leadership during a time of crisis.
