Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing political challenges due to a disagreement among members of his coalition about whether ultra-Orthodox Jews should retain their exemption from military service. The coalition faces possible collapse if the exemption is abolished, as the ultra-Orthodox lawmakers may walk out, or if it is allowed to continue, the secular members could withdraw. This situation poses a serious threat to Netanyahu’s grip on power following criticism for his handling of the Gaza war in October.
If the coalition collapses, new elections are likely, and recent polling indicates that Netanyahu may not win. A new government led by centrists is not expected to significantly change the approach to the conflict in Gaza but could lead to a more open dialogue with Palestinian leadership in the occupied West Bank. This could potentially normalize relations with Saudi Arabia, which had been moving towards establishing diplomatic ties with Israel before the conflict in Gaza.
The exemption of ultra-Orthodox Jews from military service has been a contentious issue since Israel’s founding in 1948. The numbers of the ultra-Orthodox have grown significantly, leading to increased resentment and anger over the exemption. Some ultra-Orthodox leaders fear that the recent Supreme Court decision to freeze educational subsidies for seminary students could be a step towards mandatory military service for their community. The Haredi leadership is opposed to mandatory service, citing concerns about disrupting their conservative way of life centered around Torah study.
The conflict also highlights a long-standing battle between secular Israelis and the ultra-Orthodox minority over the character and future of the Jewish state. The exemption issue has gained more attention after the Gaza war, with growing numbers of soldiers questioning why they should risk their lives for a minority that receives substantial educational subsidies and does not serve in the military. Some sectors of the Haredi community have shown greater support for the army since the conflict, and a minority has expressed interest in joining.
The Supreme Court has given the government an extension to reach a compromise that is acceptable to both religious and secular members. A potential compromise could involve requiring seminary dropouts to serve in the military, but not those still studying. The threat of a financial shortfall for Haredi schools has added urgency to the negotiations, as up to 60,000 student subsidies could be at risk. The Haredi leadership may choose to stay in the coalition to maintain influence and work towards finding solutions to the funding shortfall.
Despite the challenges, the ultra-Orthodox leaders have more to lose by leaving the coalition and sparking new elections, where a more centrist and secular alliance could come to power. Remaining in government gives them a platform to negotiate and address their concerns. The situation remains fluid, with ongoing discussions and efforts to find a middle ground that balances the needs and interests of all coalition members.
