The Colorado River is a critical water source for the Western United States, providing water for homes and farms in seven states. However, the basin is facing increasing pressure from climate change and drought. To help decision-makers better plan for the future, a research team led by Penn State scientists developed a new computational tool called the Framework for Narrative Storylines and Impact Classification (FRNSIC). This tool can explore various plausible futures and identify consequential scenario storylines to help planners address the uncertainties and impacts of climate change. Their findings were published in the journal Earth’s Future on September 19.
Scenario planning is crucial for states like Colorado to prepare for the future based on available science and stakeholder inputs. Antonia Hadjimichael, assistant professor at Penn State and lead author of the study, emphasized the importance of considering different possibilities, such as high-warming or low-warming scenarios. While traditional scenario planning approaches may focus on a limited number of scenarios, FRNSIC uses exploratory modeling to simulate thousands to millions of possible futures and identify relevant and locally meaningful storylines. This approach bridges the gap between complexity and practicality, providing decision-makers with actionable insights.
In the Colorado River basin, decision-makers are facing a complex set of factors regarding water supply for growing populations and farmers. Hadjimichael highlighted the challenge of finding a single criterion that captures everyone’s needs and concerns. By using FRNSIC to generate storylines, policymakers can explore different states of the world and understand how interventions may affect the basin under each scenario. These scenarios can help illuminate potential consequences of drought events and inform negotiations or stakeholder input.
The FRNSIC tool was developed in collaboration with experts from Cornell University, the University of Virginia, and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. Supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, in the Earth and Environmental System Modeling Program, this research provides a valuable resource for decision-makers in the Colorado River basin. By considering a wide range of possible futures and identifying consequential storylines, the tool can help stakeholders anticipate and adapt to the challenges posed by climate change and drought in the region.
The scientists behind FRNSIC aim to bring more pluralism and nuance into planning scenarios, considering the diverse needs and perspectives of stakeholders in the Colorado River basin. By exploring plausible future impacts and identifying relevant storylines for different stakeholders, the tool enables decision-makers to make informed choices about water management and adaptation strategies. This approach enhances the ability of policymakers to understand the complexities of the basin and find solutions that meet the diverse needs of farmers, populations, and other stakeholders in the region.
Overall, the development of FRNSIC represents a significant advancement in water resource management planning, particularly in the face of climate change and drought challenges in the Western United States. By providing a comprehensive and nuanced approach to scenario planning, the tool empowers decision-makers to navigate uncertainties and plan for a more sustainable and resilient future for the Colorado River basin. Through collaboration and innovation, researchers are paving the way for more effective and informed water management strategies in the region.
