The upcoming presidential election is expected to be extremely close, with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris neck and neck in the polls. Former statistician Nate Silver, who is renowned for his election predictions, has stated that a “50-50 is the only responsible forecast” for the election, but has also mentioned that his gut feeling leans towards Trump. Silver believes that both candidates will have to outperform their poll numbers in order to secure a victory, with pollsters potentially underestimating Trump’s support due to “nonresponse bias.”
According to Silver’s forecast on his Substack The Silver Bulletin, Trump currently has a 53.4 percent chance of winning, compared to Harris’ 46.2 percent. Silver has highlighted that Trump made meaningful gains in October, particularly in key swing states like Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. However, despite these gains, the election remains incredibly close with no clear drift towards either candidate in the final week leading up to the election. Additionally, Silver has mentioned that polls may be underestimating Trump’s support due to a lower civic engagement and social trust among his supporters.
Silver has also made predictions regarding different election outcomes involving Donald Trump. He calculates a 26.2 percent chance of Trump winning the popular vote, a 16.7 percent chance of winning with a majority of at least 50 percent of the vote, and an 87.8 percent chance of winning at least one state that Joe Biden won in 2020. However, the chances of Trump winning by a double-digit margin in the popular vote or winning the popular vote but losing the Electoral College are relatively low, at 0.1 percent and 0.5 percent respectively. Silver emphasizes that while Trump has a decent likelihood of winning, the race remains very close in key swing states.
Silver has pointed out a potential advantage for Trump in the fact that Harris is a female candidate. He notes that in the past, undecided voters have tended to lean away from female candidates, as was the case with Hillary Clinton in 2016. This factor could potentially work in Trump’s favor, especially given the polarizing nature of the current political climate. Silver’s polling aggregator, The Silver Bulletin, weights reliable polls more heavily and currently shows Harris in the lead with 48.5 percent, compared to Trump’s 47.4 percent. However, Trump is leading in five of the seven swing states, indicating the race is still very close.
In conclusion, Nate Silver’s predictions suggest that the upcoming presidential election is expected to be a tight race, with Donald Trump having a slight edge over Kamala Harris. Despite some gains made by Trump in key swing states, Silver emphasizes the close nature of the election and the potential for either candidate to outperform their poll numbers. As the election day draws near, the outcome remains uncertain, with both candidates having a realistic chance of victory.
