Nate Silver, the founder of FiveThirtyEight, suggested that if Joe Biden is still struggling in the presidential race by the end of the summer, he should consider stepping aside. Recent polls have shown Biden trailing behind former President Trump in key swing states and receiving low favorability ratings. However, a new poll this week showed the race deadlocked nationally, with Biden holding a slight edge over Trump. A Quinnipiac University survey revealed that Biden had 48% support among registered voters, compared to Trump’s 47%.
In a likely five-candidate showdown, Biden stands at 41%, Trump at 38%, with Democrat-turned-independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. capturing 14% support. Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent progressive candidate Cornel West each received 2%. Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Mally pointed out that a significant number of registered voters are still undecided, with Kennedy voters being particularly swayable. Trump voters appear less inclined to abandon their support for the incumbent president.
A Fox News survey earlier this month showed Trump narrowly ahead of Biden by one point in a tightened race, with an increase in economic optimism boosting approval of Biden. Silver warned that if Biden is still trailing Trump by three points or more in swing states in August, he would be at a significant disadvantage. He emphasized the need to consider alternatives if Biden’s position does not improve. Additionally, Silver mentioned that if Biden performs poorly in the first debate and is polling five to six points behind Trump in swing states, it would be a nearly unsalvageable position.
The two candidates have agreed to two TV debates in June and September leading up to the election in November. FiveThirtyEight correctly predicted Biden’s victory in 2020 but failed to accurately predict Hillary Clinton’s defeat to Trump in 2016. As the campaign trail heats up for the 2024 election, stay updated with the latest news, exclusive interviews, and more at the Fox News Digital election hub. Silver’s analysis highlights the importance of monitoring Biden’s performance in the coming months and considering potential outcomes based on polling data and debate results.
