The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of testing for disease preparedness and response, and new research from the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory (APL) and collaborators has underscored this principle. Published in The Lancet Public Health, the research included simulation and analysis that revealed how public-private partnerships to develop, produce, and distribute COVID-19 diagnostic tests saved an estimated 1.4 million lives and prevented about 7 million hospitalizations in the United States during the pandemic. APL partnered with the Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and consultants from MITRE Corporation for the study.
Gary Lin, a computational epidemiologist at APL and a study co-author, explained that the early development, manufacturing, and distribution of tests significantly reduced severe COVID-19 outcomes. Through modeling and simulation, the research team demonstrated how national coordination could effectively leverage resources and capabilities. A digital twin prototype, developed by APL researchers, was used to model the testing and diagnostic supply chain. This virtual simulation environment helped simulate baseline scenarios and assess the effects of potential pandemic interventions. Elizabeth Currier, the APL digital twin project manager, noted that the digital twin could quantitatively understand the impact of disruptions and changing infection levels on test availability, evaluate the impact of policies and investments, and aid in planning supply needs for future medical crises.
The prototype model integrated diverse data sources, including manufacturing, retail, government stockpile information, wastewater, and inpatient data, enabling the team to assess complex scenarios. It was able to forecast infectious disease cases, reflecting the demand for tests, production of tests, and supply and distribution logistics. By January 2022, government efforts had produced more than 6.7 billion COVID-19 tests in the United States, including laboratory tests, point-of-care tests, and over-the-counter tests. More than 2.7 billion tests were performed in U.S. laboratories, health care facilities, or at home. Currier emphasized the importance of rapid test development, production, and distribution to address future public health threats, noting that the insights gained from integrating data could prepare us for future pandemics with a scalable framework to allocate resources effectively.
APL’s digital twin modeling has expanded to monitor nationwide testing for COVID-19, influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and other public health threats under an all-hazards approach. The research findings highlight the importance of robust and rapid test development, production, and distribution in responding to public health threats. By integrating data from various sources, the simulations conducted by APL have provided valuable insights into effectively allocating resources for future pandemics. The development of the digital twin has enabled researchers to plan and evaluate supply needs, aiding in response efforts and ensuring a secure supply chain for future medical crises. The coordination between public and private entities in developing, producing, and distributing tests has proven to be a critical factor in saving lives and preventing hospitalizations during the COVID-19 pandemic.
