Despite a rough start to the season, the New York Mets are hoping to turn things around and climb above the .500 mark. Key players like Kodai Senga and Edwin Diaz have yet to make a significant impact, while big hitters Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor are struggling to find their groove. Lindor, the face of the franchise, is batting .197-.273-.355 with an 85 wRC+, raising concerns about his performance as he is guaranteed $34.1 million per season through 2031.
As the season progresses, excuses like “it’s early” no longer apply to Lindor’s struggle at the plate. Despite his daily commitment and over 200 plate appearances, his performance has left much to be desired. Delving into his batted ball profile, a mix of K and BB rates show room for improvement, with a decline in K rate to 15.6% but also a drop in walk rate to 7.3%. The gap between his “Tru” Production+ and Adjusted Contact Score has widened in 2024, with the latter at a career-low 82.
Examining Lindor’s batted ball frequencies reveals little change, with a slight decline in pop-up rate but an increase in fly ball rate. His liner rate remains below league average for the third consecutive season, showing no significant breakthroughs. However, his batted ball authority is cause for concern, with a decrease in average fly ball exit speed to 89.1 mph, the lowest since 2016. Additionally, his grounder exit speed is also at a low point, suggesting a possible decline in performance.
While Lindor’s current statistics fall short of what they “should be,” there are concerns that his offensive excellence may be in the rearview. Despite a solid K/BB profile, he may struggle to maintain above-average production moving forward. However, his consistent performance in recent years suggests a slight margin for improvement. Even with potential decline, Lindor remains a valuable player contributing to the team’s success on the field.
Though Lindor’s best days may be behind him, his value to the Mets is still significant. With a potential 3+ WAR season and an above-average performance as a shortstop, Lindor’s contract is not considered a complete disaster. While adjustments may be needed at the plate, Lindor continues to be a solid contributor with a high floor and the potential for a spike in performance. Despite trending downward, Lindor’s presence on the field remains valuable to the Mets as they strive for success in the season ahead.
