Researchers at Princeton University and the Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center have modeled a supply chain for second-generation biofuels in the midwestern United States. These next-generation biofuels are seen as a more sustainable alternative to fossil fuels, derived from agricultural waste or non-food crops grown on low productivity land. However, there is still considerable uncertainty surrounding their role in a low-carbon energy future. This study aims to unite two perspectives on biofuels, incorporating detailed data to forecast a supply chain for biofuels across an eight-state region in the Midwest.
The complex supply chains for biofuels involve growing feedstocks, transporting them to a refinery, and converting them into liquid biofuels. The decisions made at each point in the supply chain can have varying costs and emissions impacts, from the choice of feedstock to the technology used for conversion. The researchers emphasize that seemingly unrelated decisions, such as incentives for carbon capture or choice of conversion technology, can significantly impact the landscape design of a bioeconomy. The optimal design of the landscape depends on the goals set, including the desired quantity of biofuels, cost, and carbon intensity.
While the model created by the researchers is not meant to be a decision-making tool, it provides valuable insights into the economics and environmental impacts of a future bioeconomy. With the commercialization of second-generation biofuels still in its early stages, proactive research can help ensure that these fuels are efficiently integrated into the energy system. The model can be used to answer questions related to minimizing economic costs, reducing environmental impacts, or finding a balance between the two in the production of biofuels.
The study also examines the impact of policy incentives on shaping technologies and emissions impacts in a biofuels supply chain. The team found that the 45Q tax credit for carbon capture played a significant role in incentivizing carbon capture across the system. Lower tax credit values were insufficient to drive investment in carbon capture and sequestration. Alternative scenarios explored by the researchers revealed tradeoffs in incentivizing carbon capture at different stages of the supply chain, highlighting the importance of designing systems properly to maximize environmental benefits.
In addition to financial incentives, the researchers explored pathways for mitigating carbon emissions through site-specific soil carbon sequestration potentials and management decisions. By incorporating these strategies, they were able to design a landscape with greater overall environmental benefits. The researchers stress the importance of gathering as much information as possible before committing to technologies and configurations in the development of next-generation biofuels. By considering a variety of factors in their model, they aim to ensure that future biofuels systems are designed in an optimal and sustainable manner.
