South Africa recently held national and provincial elections with more than 28 million registered voters. After half of the ballots were counted, the ruling African National Congress (ANC) was leading with over 40 percent of the national vote. The Democratic Alliance (DA) was in second place, according to the Independent Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC).
The top four parties in the race were the ANC, the DA, uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK), and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF). The ANC has been the dominant party in South Africa since the end of apartheid in 1994, with Nelson Mandela becoming the country’s first Black president. The party has seen varying levels of electoral success since then, with its lowest victory margin of 57.5 percent in the last election in 2019.
The National Assembly, the lower house of parliament, is currently made up of 400 members from 14 political parties, with seats allocated proportionally based on the votes received in the 2019 elections. The ANC holds the majority with 230 seats, followed by the DA with 84 seats, the EFF with 44 seats, and the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) with 14 seats. The remaining 28 seats are divided among ten other parties.
In South Africa, the president is not directly elected by the people. Instead, the members of the National Assembly elect the president by a simple majority, requiring 201 or more votes. If the ANC secures the majority, President Cyril Ramaphosa is likely to be re-elected for a second and final five-year term. However, if no party receives a majority, coalition government formation will be necessary, with the ANC potentially needing to make a deal with other parties.
Opinion polls suggest that the ANC, currently at about 40 percent support, may not retain its majority in the elections. In such a scenario, the ANC will have to enter into a coalition government with other parties to remain in power. The final election results are expected to be announced by the IEC on Sunday, following verification of the remaining ballots. While there is a possibility of changes in government, the ANC is unlikely to be completely removed from power unless its performance significantly worsens.
