The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll, conducted by Selzer & Co., showed Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris by just 4 percentage points in a state that Trump has historically dominated. This is significant because Selzer & Co. has been known for its accuracy in polling, with its 2016 and 2020 Iowa polls correctly predicting Trump’s wins in the state. The close race in Iowa could also bode well for Harris’ chances in neighboring Wisconsin, where she has been polling ahead of Trump in recent surveys.
The results of the Iowa poll are especially noteworthy when compared to polling data from Wisconsin, a key swing state with similar demographics. Harris has been polling favorably in Wisconsin, with recent surveys showing her ahead of Trump by 4 percentage points. This is a stronger lead than Biden had in Wisconsin in 2020 and suggests a potential shift in Harris’ favor in the state. Winning Wisconsin would improve Harris’ overall chances of winning the election, as she would need to carry at least two other battleground states to secure victory.
While a win in Wisconsin would increase Harris’ chances of winning the election, it is not a guarantee of victory. Even with Wisconsin’s electoral votes, Harris would still need to secure additional battleground states to win. However, winning Wisconsin would give Harris a significant boost, with most modelers estimating her chances of winning the election at around 75%. This is a substantial improvement from the current 50/50 odds and reflects a positive shift in Harris’ favor.
It is important to note that polling data can fluctuate leading up to Election Day. The current Selzer poll showing Harris in a favorable position is not a definitive prediction of the election outcome. Polls can be influenced by various factors, and much could change between now and November. However, the Selzer poll is a positive indication for Harris, especially when compared to previous polling results from June that showed Trump with a significant lead.
Ultimately, the Selzer poll’s findings suggest that Harris is in a stronger position in both Iowa and Wisconsin than previous Democratic candidates. The close race in Iowa and Harris’ lead in Wisconsin point to a potential shift in her favor in key battleground states. While a victory in Wisconsin would improve Harris’ chances of winning the election, it is not a guarantee of success. The coming months leading up to Election Day will provide more clarity on the state of the race and the potential outcomes for both candidates.
