The latest survey from the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll, conducted by Selzer & Co., shows Kamala Harris trailing Donald Trump in Iowa by just a few points, within the margin of error. This is significant because Trump has historically done well in Iowa, winning the state comfortably in the past. The close race in Iowa could be a positive sign for Harris, both in terms of polling accuracy and for her chances in neighboring Wisconsin, where the demographics are comparable.
Selzer & Co. has a track record of accuracy in their polling, even when other pollsters have struggled. In the 2016 election, their final poll correctly predicted Trump’s victory in Iowa, despite other polls indicating a closer race. Similar results were seen in the 2020 election, where Trump outperformed his polling in many battleground states. The current polling in Iowa suggests that other pollsters who show a close race are not underestimating Trump at this point.
Wisconsin, a neighboring state with similar demographics to Iowa, has also been a battleground state in recent elections. Recent polls from Marquette University Law School show Harris leading Trump by a narrow margin, a better result compared to Biden’s winning margin in the state in 2020. The fact that the Selzer poll in Iowa is indicating a shift in Harris’ favor, similar to Wisconsin polls, is a promising sign for her campaign.
While a win in Wisconsin would not guarantee victory for Harris, it would significantly improve her chances of winning the overall election. If she were to win Wisconsin, along with other states leaning towards her, modelers would give her a much higher chance of winning. Despite this, a 75% chance of victory is not a sure thing, as a lot can change between now and Election Day. It is also possible that the Selzer poll could be an outlier, similar to their polling in 2020 which ended up favoring Trump.
In conclusion, having the support of the Selzer poll is favorable for Harris at this point. The current survey shows a better result for her than the final polls did for both Clinton and Biden in previous elections. While the Iowa poll may not be definitive, it does provide some insight into the potential outcomes of the upcoming election. The close race in Iowa and the positive polling results in Wisconsin could be indicative of a shift in favor of Harris, but much is still uncertain leading up to Election Day.
