New polling data from Michigan and Wisconsin shows Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris in these crucial swing states. In Michigan, a Trafalgar Group survey of 1,086 likely voters conducted between September 28 and 30 shows Trump ahead of Harris by a narrow margin of 47% to 45%. This is surprising given that Michigan typically leans Democratic. One reason for Harris’ lag in this state may be attributed to the Biden administration’s policy on the Israeli war in Gaza, which does not resonate well with Muslims. Polls have shown that Green Party candidate Jill Stein is a potential spoiler among this demographic, and those who have not yet committed to a major candidate may be leaning towards the Green Party. Downballot, Democratic Senate candidate Elissa Slotkin and Republican Mike Rogers are tied at 47% each in the race for Senate.
In Wisconsin, another Trafalgar Group survey of 1,086 likely voters conducted between September 28 and 30 shows Trump slightly ahead of Harris by 47% to 46%. However, the same survey reveals that some Trump supporters are not sold on Senate hopeful Eric Hovde. Meanwhile, Democratic incumbent Senator Tammy Baldwin leads Republican businessman Hovde 48% to 46% in the Senate race, with 6% undecided. A separate Wisconsin poll by Marquette University Law School shows Harris leading Trump 49% to 44% among likely voters, with Robert F. Kennedy garnering 3% support. Harris has a strong base of support among Democrats and independents, with 99% support among Democrats and over 60% support among independents.
The Marquette poll in Wisconsin also shows that 50% of voters believe Harris is more likely to win than Trump, while only 39% see Trump returning to the White House. In this survey, Hovde trails Baldwin 53% to 46%, reflecting a shift when undecided voters are forced to choose. Without this compulsory choice, Hovde only trails by 5 points. Baldwin has a consistently modest lead in polls, with more than 60% support among independents. The pollster notes that Baldwin is consolidating the Democratic vote in the state, which may be boosting her lead in the race for Senate. Marquette polled 798 likely voters in Wisconsin between September 18 and 26 with a margin of error of +/-4.4%.
Overall, the polling data from Michigan and Wisconsin presents a mixed picture for the upcoming presidential and Senate races. While Trump holds a narrow lead in Michigan and Wisconsin, Harris has been steadily gaining support in Wisconsin, particularly among independents. The strong unified support for Harris among Democrats in Wisconsin may be an advantage for her campaign. Meanwhile, the Senate races in both states are highly competitive, with Democratic incumbents facing tough challenges from Republican hopefuls. The polls suggest that both the presidential and Senate races in Michigan and Wisconsin will be closely watched in the coming weeks leading up to the election.
