Vice President Kamala Harris has seen a surge in her chances of winning the upcoming U.S. presidential election according to predictions on Polymarket. Following a debate with former President Donald Trump, both candidates are currently tied with a 49% probability of victory on Polymarket’s $860 million prediction market. The debate, the first and potentially the last between Harris and Trump before the November election, covered topics such as the war in Gaza and abortion rights. Despite cryptocurrency’s growing interest and potential regulation, it was not discussed during the debate.
Harris received a significant advantage from bettors on Polymarket, with 94% believing she won the debate, although official polls have not been released yet. Leading up to the debate, Harris’ odds on Polymarket rose from 46% to 49%, while Trump’s slipped from 52% to 49%. Interestingly, Trump has been vocal in his support for the cryptocurrency sector, while Harris has engaged with the industry but has not taken a definitive stance on the matter. Bitcoin’s price mirrored the debate, experiencing slight fluctuations as it briefly climbed above $58,000 before dipping to around $56,700 and stabilizing at $56,797.
Justin d’Anethan, head of APAC business development at crypto market maker Keyrock, noted that the crypto market did not react significantly to the debate. He explained that Bitcoin behaved like a typical risk asset, moving in line with tech stocks and other equities. D’Anethan suggested that Bitcoin is awaiting a more concrete catalyst, such as a change in Federal Reserve policy or a significant political development, to trigger a significant price movement. Meanwhile, PolitiFi tokens tied to Trump and Harris saw immediate reactions during the debate, with Trump-linked token Super Trump (STRUMP) and Kamala Horris (KAMA) experiencing declines in market value.
Bloomberg LP, a leading financial data and news service provider, announced its intention to integrate election odds data from Polymarket into its widely used Terminal. Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market on the Polygon network, has become a popular platform for tracking real-time election odds. The platform allows users to bet on various event outcomes using transparent on-chain data and smart contracts for trade execution and payouts. In August, Polymarket’s trading volume approached $450 million, with around $760 million bet on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election by late August.
A bipartisan group of five United States Senators and three House representatives recently called for a ban on betting activities related to the upcoming 2024 presidential election. This group, which includes prominent figures like Senators Jeff Merkley, Richard Blumenthal, Elizabeth Warren, and Representatives Jamie Raskin and John Sarbanes, expressed concerns about billionaires potentially using large wagers to influence election outcomes, thus undermining public trust in the democratic process. Overall, despite the absence of cryptocurrency discussions in the recent debate, the outcome has impacted market sentiments and predictions for the upcoming presidential election.
