Russia’s new defense minister, Andrei Belousov, overestimated Russian advances in Ukraine, claiming the country had seized control of 880 square kilometers of territory since the beginning of 2024. However, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) stated that evidence suggests that Moscow’s troops have only seized 752 square kilometers since early January. Russia has been pushing along the eastern front lines, capturing the former Ukrainian stronghold of Avdiivka in February and advancing westward since then.
In May, Russian troops opened up a new front in the war by pouring over the border into Ukraine’s northeastern Kharkiv region. Moscow’s strategy was to force Ukraine to pull resources from the eastern front lines to Kharkiv, overstretching Ukraine ahead of resupplies of Western military aid. Russia quickly captured several settlements in northern Kharkiv, but recent assessments indicate that Ukraine has managed to make some advances in areas targeted by Russia. Russian forces are reported to be pushing the enemy out of their positions, with Ukrainian forces retreating eight to nine kilometers in the Kharkiv region.
The Ukrainian city of Vovchansk, located near the Russian border, has been heavily bombarded as fighting continues in the streets. Russia launched a guided aerial bomb on Vovchansk from its border Belgorod region, with reports of marginal advances in the edges of the city. Ukrainian forces are said to control around 70 percent of Vovchansk, with ongoing street fighting. Geolocated footage from Thursday indicated that Ukraine made gains in central Vovchansk, according to the ISW.
Despite Belousov’s claims of significant territorial gains in Ukraine, the ISW’s assessments suggest a more measured progress by Russian forces. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine continues to be a point of contention, with clashes raging along the front lines. The situation in Kharkiv remains volatile, with both Russian and Ukrainian forces engaged in intense fighting for control of key areas. The conflict in Ukraine shows no signs of abating, with both sides vying for strategic advantage in the war-torn country. The assessment by the ISW provides a more nuanced understanding of the situation on the ground in Ukraine, highlighting the complexities and challenges faced by both Russian and Ukrainian forces in the conflict.
