Iran’s retaliatory attack on Israeli airspace with drones and missiles was a calibrated response to show deterrence without escalating to an all-out war, according to experts. The attack, which caused limited damage, was followed by a statement from Iran indicating they were not willing to continue it. Israel is now faced with deciding on how to respond to the attack, with some officials noting that a response is necessary given the magnitude of the attack. The U.S. had anticipated such a response from Iran following Israel’s bombing of an Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus on April 1.
Critics have pointed out that Israel’s military strategy may lack coherence, with some suggesting the lack of a clear strategy in the bombing of the Iranian compound. Israel has long viewed Iran as an existential threat and has actively clashed with previous U.S. administrations over strategies to deal with the regime. Iran, on the other hand, has been targeted by U.S. and Israeli campaigns to degrade its military capabilities. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has warned that the confrontation with Iran is not over and that Israel must be prepared for any scenario.
While the White House believes that Israel is not seeking a wider conflict with Iran, there is concern that Israel’s actions could unintentionally lead to a catastrophic escalation. Criticism has been directed at President Biden for failing to influence Netanyahu’s decisions in handling the situation with Iran. Despite advocating for restraint in U.S. foreign policy, U.S. forces in the region continue to shoot down Iranian-launched drones targeting Israel as a defensive measure. The situation remains volatile, with both sides on alert for further escalation.
Some experts warn against underestimating Iran’s willingness to engage in conflict with Israel if provoked. The limited destruction caused by Iran’s recent strikes should not be seen as a sign of restraint, but rather as a reflection of strategic patience being exhausted. Iran’s national dignity is a core value that it will not easily overlook, especially in the face of humiliation from Israel’s actions. The scale of the recent attack indicates that Iran’s tolerance for such provocations is reaching its limit, and further strikes from Israel could trigger a larger conflict. Iran has made it clear that it will respond with force if its interests are attacked, signaling a potential for increased hostilities in the future.
