Israel has vowed to retaliate against Iran for a large-scale aerial assault that occurred over the weekend. The extent and timing of Israel’s response to the more than 300 drones and missiles launched by Iran remain uncertain. While analysts believe Israel is considering direct strikes on Iran for deterrence, they are also wary of initiating a full-blown conflict. One option for Israel is a covert escalation to intensify their shadow war without escalating to open conflict.
President Biden has expressed unwavering support for Israel’s security against Iranian threats but has made it clear that the U.S. will not participate in offensive operations against Iran. Israel is considering building a regional coalition to exact a price from Iran in a manner and timing that suits their needs. Iran claimed the attack on Israel was in response to an Israeli strike on its embassy compound in Damascus earlier in the month, citing self-defense as the reason for their actions.
The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran has seen the latter supporting groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, and Yemeni Houthis who are in opposition to Israel. Iran’s support also extends to the Syrian regime under President Bashar al-Assad, making the confrontation with Israel a longstanding issue. Analysts predict that Israel may respond within a week, with possibilities of an extreme retaliation against Iran’s nuclear capacity within a year or 18 months, causing potential market instability.
Despite wanting de-escalation, the U.S. acknowledges a higher level of escalation due to the nuclear threat posed by Iran, which is expected to rise over the next 18 months. No matter how Israel responds, Iran may continue to disrupt the global economy to pressure the United States into intervening for de-escalation. Iran has indicated that its attack on Israel has concluded for now, warning of severe repercussions if Israel makes another mistake and urging the U.S. to stay out of the conflict.
Iran’s recent actions, including the attack on Israel and seizure of an Israeli-linked container ship, have raised tensions in the region. Analysts believe Iran aims to provoke just enough to elicit diplomatic pressure on Israel to de-escalate, while also warning of more severe actions if provoked further. The situation remains volatile as both countries assess their next steps, with potential for further escalation if not handled carefully.
