The recent New Year’s Day terrorist attack in New Orleans has once again highlighted the ongoing threat posed by the Islamic State. The attacker, Shamsud-Din Jabbar, drove a pickup truck into a crowded street, killing at least 15 people and injuring many others. While the FBI has not confirmed his direct affiliation with ISIS, reports suggest he was sympathetic to the terrorist network and had pledged allegiance in videos posted online. This incident does not signal a resurgence of ISIS, but experts warn that the group is finding less resistance in areas where it previously faced opposition.
Since the purported defeat of ISIS in 2019, the group has continued to pose a threat globally, with significant networks in Africa, particularly in the Sahel and East Africa, as well as in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria. The withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan and the fall of the Assad regime in Syria have created security vacuums that could be exploited by terrorist groups like ISIS. The rise of ISIS-K, the regional affiliate of ISIS, garnered international attention when it attacked Afghans fleeing the Taliban and killed American service members. Concerns remain about Afghanistan becoming a safe haven for terrorist groups, including ISIS-K and al Qaeda.
The security landscape in Syria could also shift with the potential withdrawal of US forces from the region. The Biden administration announced plans to end the military mission in Iraq by 2026, raising concerns about the threat posed by ISIS in the region. Security experts warn that without a US presence, groups like ISIS could thrive in the lawless environment. The Assad regime, despite its atrocities, had previously fought against ISIS, so its collapse could create space for the terrorist organization to regain strength.
Experts emphasize the continued importance of US presence in Iraq and Syria to counter the threat of ISIS. Without a strong international coalition, terrorist groups will exploit power vacuums and thrive. While the Biden administration’s plans for troop withdrawals remain unclear, it is essential for the US to reassess its strategy in combating ISIS and other extremist organizations. The incoming Trump administration will face challenges in deciding whether to maintain a military presence in the Middle East or risk a resurgence of terrorist groups in the region. It will be crucial for the US to consider the broader implications of its actions on regional security and stability.
