Jean-François Lisée, a leader of the Parti Québécois, predicted a rebirth of Quebec’s independence movement a decade ago. However, after losing his riding and seeing his party reduced to 10 seats in 2018, the election was seen as proof that separatism was no longer a defining issue in Quebec politics. François Legault, leader of the Coalition Avenir Québec, took power, promising not to hold a referendum, and this was well-received by Quebecers. However, on the eve of the 30th anniversary of Quebec’s second independence referendum, it seems the tide could be turning again as Legault’s popularity declines, and the Parti Québécois with a new leader has been ahead in the polls for over a year.
Despite the increase in popularity of the Parti Québécois, support for independence in Quebec has remained around 35% for years. Younger Quebecers, in particular, are not as fervently supportive of independence as previous generations were. This lack of resonance with the younger generation is seen as a major weakness for the independence movement in Quebec. Emile Simard, leader of the PQ’s youth wing, suggests that young people have never seriously considered an alternative to the status quo and that a referendum campaign would force them to think more deeply about the question.
The executive director of the Centre of Excellence on the Canadian Federation expressed concern about the lack of discussion surrounding Quebec independence and the potential response if a new independence movement gains traction. With a federal Conservative government in Ottawa, the PQ’s prospects could be affected since the Conservative leader favours a hands-off approach to the provinces. However, Simard believes that Quebec may be better off alone, especially if environmental values are not prioritized in Canada.
The sovereigntist Bloc Québécois could become the official Opposition for the first time since 1993 in the upcoming federal election, with the Liberals facing potential decimation. A PQ victory in the 2026 provincial election could give the independence movement more clout than it has had in decades. However, the PQ may face a challenge from the provincial Liberals, who will kick off a leadership race soon. The possibility of a PQ victory in the next Quebec election raises the expectation that the population is ready for a referendum, and it may be time to address the issue of Quebec independence once and for all.
Overall, the PQ’s resurgence in popularity, particularly among younger voters, has sparked renewed speculation about the future of Quebec’s independence movement. The shift in leadership within the party, with a new charismatic young leader at the helm, has injected new energy into a party that was once on the verge of extinction. Polls suggest that if an election were held today, the Parti Québécois would easily win a majority, and there is renewed optimism within the party about holding a third referendum by 2030. However, whether this will lead to a revival of the province’s independence movement remains to be seen, as support for independence has not significantly increased despite the PQ’s rise in popularity.
