President-elect Donald Trump’s plans to revive the maximum pressure campaign against Iran, along with a chronic gas shortage in the country, could potentially lead to the downfall of the Iranian regime, according to experts. The gas shortage is seen as a significant vulnerability for the regime, along with other challenges such as the weakening influence of Iran’s allies in various conflicts in the region. The mismanagement of resources and economic challenges facing Iran have also contributed to the pressure on the regime.
The Iranian government is facing widespread blackouts and severe gas shortages, which have raised fears of social and political unrest. Past protests over fuel prices and the compulsory hijab have led to violent repression by the regime, including the killing of protesters. Recent protests in 2022 have seen calls for the dissolution of the Islamic Republic. The head of Iran’s judiciary has issued a directive to prevent further unrest, indicating the regime’s concerns about maintaining stability in the face of growing challenges.
Despite Iran’s vast natural gas and oil reserves, years of underinvestment, economic mismanagement, and corruption have left the energy sector ill-prepared for seasonal surges. The Iranian regime has also dedicated significant funds to supporting terrorist proxies, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. The weakening economy, exacerbated by sanctions and internal challenges, has further strained the regime’s resources and ability to control internal dissent.
The plummeting value of the Iranian rial and the energy crisis have created new challenges for the regime, as it struggles to address economic and social instability. The closure of schools, universities, and government offices due to the energy crisis has added to the challenges facing Iran. The regime’s efforts to stabilize the situation and prevent further unrest reflect the growing pressure it faces internally and externally. The Iranian Central Bank’s attempts to improve the currency rate have not been successful, indicating the severity of the economic challenges facing Iran.
Experts believe that with President Trump likely to pursue a maximum pressure campaign against Iran, the Iranian people may become increasingly discontent and demand regime change. The regime’s response to protests and dissent has been characterized by violence and repression, leading to international condemnation. The regime’s support for terrorist proxies and involvement in regional conflicts have also strained its resources and ability to address internal challenges. The combination of economic pressures, internal unrest, and external threats could potentially lead to the downfall of the Iranian regime.
Overall, the growing vulnerabilities facing the Iranian regime, including economic challenges, social unrest, and external pressure, could pave the way for significant changes in the country. The regime’s attempts to maintain control and stability in the face of these challenges may be increasingly difficult, particularly with the prospect of renewed pressure from the United States under the incoming administration. The future of Iran and the region remains uncertain, but the current situation indicates a potential turning point in the country’s history.
