The upcoming local elections in Turkey will be critical for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ruling party as they aim to win back key cities they lost in 2019. Winning back Istanbul and Ankara could pave the way for Erdogan to introduce a new constitution that would allow him to extend his rule beyond the current term limit. Analysts believe that a victory for the ruling party in these municipalities could bolster Erdogan’s power and influence in the country.
The battle for Istanbul is expected to be fierce, with the incumbent mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, facing off against Murat Kurum, a former minister in Erdogan’s government. Imamoglu, who has been popular with voters, has promised infrastructure projects to improve the city’s infrastructure and ease traffic congestion. Analysts predict a close race between the two candidates, with opposition parties also vying for support from conservative and religious voters who may be disillusioned with Erdogan’s handling of the economy.
For Erdogan, winning back Istanbul and Ankara is crucial in order to consolidate power and potentially introduce a new constitution that would allow him to remain in office beyond 2028. Despite not having enough seats in parliament to enact these changes, a strong showing in the local elections could sway some conservative opposition parliamentarians to support Erdogan’s agenda. The opposition, on the other hand, is hoping to bounce back and present itself as a viable alternative to Erdogan’s ruling party.
The opposition alliance, led by the CHP, has struggled following a devastating defeat in last year’s presidential election. The party’s ability to hold onto key cities like Ankara and Istanbul is seen as crucial in revitalizing the party and presenting a challenge to Erdogan’s rule. However, unfair campaigning practices and a lack of media coverage for opposition candidates have made it difficult for the opposition to gain momentum in the lead-up to the elections.
Kurdish voters, who make up around 10% of the electorate in Istanbul, could play a decisive role in the mayoral race. The pro-Kurdish party, DEM, which supported Imamoglu in the 2019 elections, is fielding its own candidates this time. However, the party’s candidates are seen as low-profile, potentially indicating support for Imamoglu. The Kurdish party is expected to win many municipalities in the predominantly Kurdish regions of southeastern Turkey, but concerns remain about their ability to retain these positions given past government actions against elected Kurdish mayors.
Overall, the local elections in Turkey will be a crucial test of Erdogan’s popularity and the strength of the opposition. Winning back key cities like Istanbul and Ankara could solidify Erdogan’s power and influence in the country while also paving the way for potential constitutional changes. However, the opposition is hoping to bounce back and present itself as a viable alternative to the ruling party, with Kurdish voters playing a potentially decisive role in the outcome of the elections.
