As Republicans strive to maintain their slim House majority after a tumultuous two years marked by the party’s shift towards embracing former President Donald Trump’s divisive brand of politics, several key races are emerging as ones to watch in the upcoming November elections. Rep. Lauren Boebert of Colorado, facing at least seven GOP challengers in the June primary, announced plans to run for a solidly red Congressional District after Rep. Ken Buck’s retirement announcement. Rep. Marcy Kaptur of Ohio, the longest-serving female House member, will face Republican state Rep. Derrick Merrin in a more Republican-leaning district in November. In Arizona, Democrats are eyeing Rep. David Schweikert’s seat, and Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska is gearing up for a rematch against Democratic state Sen. Tony Vargas in a toss-up district.
In Michigan, two Democrats are leaving their toss-up seats open for potential GOP flips, with former state lawmaker Tom Barrett challenging former Democratic state Sen. Chris Hertel for a House seat. In New York, three Republican-held seats are vulnerable to Democratic challenges, while the seat held by Republican Rep. Brandon Williams leans Democratic. California also has four seats that could potentially be flipped in November, three held by Republicans and one Democratic seat left vacant by a former representative’s defeat in the primary.
Republicans are poised to flip three seats in North Carolina with newly redrawn district lines, and Louisiana’s redistricting process is expected to result in a Democrat ousting Republican Rep. Garret Graves. Currently, Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates 212 seats as safe, likely, or leaning Republican, compared to 206 for Democrats. Cook Political Report rates 203 seats as solid, likely, or leaning Democratic, and 210 seats as solid, likely, or leaning Republican, with parties needing 218 seats for a House majority.
The 2022 midterm elections saw Republicans narrowly flipping the House, leading to a chaotic 118th session of Congress where far-right lawmakers used the party’s narrow majority to advance their policies and block Democratic legislation. Key events during this time included opening an impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden, impeaching Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, and the removal of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. The down-ballot races in November are expected to reflect Americans’ sentiments towards Trump and Biden, with both parties seeking to capitalize on negative views towards the presidential candidates.
The internal turmoil within the House, coupled with Trump’s influence over the GOP, resulted in the resignations of several Republican Congress members and McCarthy’s ouster. With the impending resignations, including Gallagher’s departure, the GOP’s majority will be reduced to just one seat. As the country gears up for the upcoming elections, these key races will play a significant role in shaping the political landscape and determining the balance of power in the House of Representatives.
