A recent Fox News poll has shown a significant shift in favor of Donald Trump in the presidential race against Kamala Harris. Conducted among 1,110 registered voters and 870 likely voters between October 11 and 14, the poll reveals Trump leading Harris by 2 points among both registered and likely voters, with a 4-point swing from a month ago when Harris was ahead. However, Trump’s lead is within the margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Among voters from seven key battleground states, Harris is leading by 6 points, as per Fox News data. These figures are some of the best numbers for Trump in a Fox News poll since he became the Republican nominee.
The recent surge in support for Trump has largely been attributed to an increase in backing from white voters, who now support him by 10 points, compared to 4 points last month and 6 points in August. Trump is also receiving record support among voters aged 65 and older (49 percent) and those with a college degree (48 percent). Conversely, Harris is facing her lowest levels of support since being named the nominee among Black voters (67 percent), college graduates (49 percent), older voters (47 percent), and white voters with a college degree (46 percent). The subtle movement toward Trump could be consequential, especially if he continues to gain traction among college-educated voters.
According to the Fox News poll, the majority of both Harris and Trump supporters claim they are “extremely” motivated to vote. However, a larger percentage of Trump’s supporters indicate that they are voting for him rather than against Harris, compared to Harris’ supporters. While two-thirds of Harris supporters say their vote is for her, one-third say it is against Trump. Among Trump supporters, 80 percent state they are voting for him rather than against Harris (18 percent). The outcome of the election may hinge on which side is more effective in getting their voters to the polls as opposed to persuasion.
In addition to the Fox News poll, other polls are also showing a shift in favor of Trump. RealClearPolitics’ poll tracker recently indicated Michigan flipping in favor of Trump for the first time since July 29, with Nevada and Pennsylvania also leaning Republican. Nate Silver’s forecast showed that 19 states had shifted in Trump’s favor. The polls remain close, particularly in swing states where the candidates are within 1 or 2 points of each other. As of Silver’s latest forecast, Trump and Harris have essentially an equal chance of winning in November, with Harris at 50.1 percent compared to Trump’s 49.7 percent.
Harris’ odds of victory in the election have dropped by about 6 percentage points since late September, with Trump gaining ground in 19 states, according to Silver’s forecast. The forecast is incredibly close, with Silver noting that after another day of polls showing a virtually tied race in Midwestern battlegrounds, it is now 50/50. The dynamics of the presidential race continue to evolve as the candidates vie for support and work to motivate their bases to turn out in November. The outcome remains unpredictable, with both campaigns likely focusing on getting their supporters to the polls in a closely contested election.
