Donald Trump’s former communications director has cautioned Vice President Kamala Harris against getting too comfortable despite recent polling that shows her leading the former president in critical battleground states. Since launching her campaign in late July, Harris has gained momentum in the 2024 presidential race, making up substantial ground for Democrats who had been trailing the former president. However, some analysts warn that the polling results may not accurately reflect how close the race to the White House truly is.
Fox News released a set of polls showing Harris surging in four battleground states, but Trump’s campaign released a memo criticizing what it described as “atrocious” polling from the network in past election years. The polls showed Harris leading by 1 or 2 percentage points in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, while Trump was ahead by 1 point in North Carolina. Trump’s former White House communications director, Anthony Scaramucci, noted that Trump’s support tends to be underestimated in polling and advised Harris to push hard in those areas where she is currently leading. Scaramucci also praised Harris for consistently outperforming expectations and predicted that she would be a formidable candidate in November.
U.S. public opinion polling has previously underestimated Trump’s support in both the 2016 and 2020 elections, with pollsters struggling to accurately gauge the former president’s voting base. Scott Keeter, a senior researcher at Pew Research Center, explained that Trump’s supporters often have lower levels of trust in institutions, including pollsters, which can skew results. Harris has consistently portrayed herself as the underdog in the 2024 race, emphasizing the need for hard work and not paying too much attention to polls, as they can be misleading.
Despite the positive polling results for Harris, some experts caution that the race to the White House may be much closer than current surveys indicate. Scaramucci advised Harris to be wary of Trump’s tendency to “under poll” and to not rely too heavily on favorable poll numbers. With the election still a few months away, both campaigns are expected to intensify their efforts in battleground states and work hard to secure support from undecided voters. As the race continues to unfold, it remains to be seen whether Harris can maintain her lead over Trump and emerge victorious in the 2024 presidential election.
