Former Defense Secretary Mark Esper believes that Iran is likely to retaliate against Israel for a recent missile strike that hit Tehran’s consulate in Damascus, Syria. The strike, which killed senior Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Mohammad Reza Zahedi, has not been claimed by Israel. A Lebanese security source identified Israel as responsible, but an Israeli military spokesperson declined to comment. Esper predicted that Iran will take action against Israel but on a limited scale to avoid escalating into a wider war in the Middle East. He stated that Iran will want to maintain credibility with their proxies and hardliners, but they also do not want a major conflict with Israel and the United States.
Iran has stated that it reserves the right to take a decisive response to the purported Israeli strike, which also killed six other Iranian military advisers. President Biden and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have discussed the threat posed by Iran, with the Biden administration expressing full support for Israel against threats from Iran. U.S. force posture in the Middle East has not changed since before the Israeli air strike, with officials monitoring the situation given the increased rhetoric from Iran but not making changes to prepare for a significant attack. Israel, on the other hand, has made operational changes such as canceling leave for IDF personnel and calling up additional reservists to bolster air defense systems on the northern border.
Despite Israel not taking credit for the strike on Iran’s consulate, the IDF has made several operational changes in response. They have experienced widespread GPS disruptions, with some applications showing users in Lebanon’s capital Beirut in deliberate attempts to confuse Israeli drone threats. IDF spokesperson Daniel Hagari emphasized the multi-front war that Israel is facing, stating that they are prepared for any scenario and are constantly monitoring all threats. Israel is currently on high alert due to the potential for retaliation by Iran following the strike on their consulate in Damascus.
Overall, tensions between Israel and Iran are rising, with both sides bracing for potential retaliatory actions. Former Defense Secretary Esper believes that Iran will seek to uphold their credibility and appease hardliners by taking action against Israel but will likely limit the attack to avoid escalating into a wider conflict. The Biden administration has expressed support for Israel’s defense against threats from Iran, while U.S. force posture in the region has remained unchanged. Israel has implemented operational changes, including calling up reservists and cancelling leave, in response to the escalating situation. Both countries are closely monitoring the situation and preparing for potential escalation in the region.
