2024 was initially shaping up to be a Presidential election year in which Florida played a minimal role. Governor Ron DeSantis, a prominent Republican candidate, had been defeated in the primary by former President Donald Trump, and Florida Democrats were still reeling from their significant losses in 2022. However, the political landscape unexpectedly shifted when the Florida Supreme Court upheld a ban on abortions after six weeks of pregnancy and approved a constitutional amendment that would ensure the right to abortion before viability. This decision prompted President Biden’s campaign to announce its intention to contest Florida’s election, citing the abortion issue as a crucial factor in their strategy.
With Florida emerging as a potential battleground state due to the abortion ruling, Democratic activists see an opportunity to gain ground in down-ballot races and potentially influence the outcome of the Senate contest. While Biden’s campaign appears to be focusing on other key states like those in the upper-Midwest and Pennsylvania, they are using the Florida abortion issue to amplify their message in these more winnable areas. This strategic move aims to reach the 270 electoral votes necessary to secure the presidency, rather than placing a strong emphasis on Florida itself. While some Democrats view Florida as a challenging state to win, they acknowledge the benefits of diverting resources and attention from the opposing side.
However, there is skepticism within the state regarding the Biden campaign’s commitment to fully contest Florida, given their cautious approach to advertising and lack of specific details on their investment in the state’s media markets. Furthermore, abortion-rights activists are concerned that a significant Biden-led push on abortion rights in Florida may not resonate with the necessary Republican and independent voters to secure the referendum’s success. Despite these challenges, some Democrats believe that the mere presence of Biden’s campaign in Florida could create a distraction for the opposition and potentially impact their spending and resources in other critical states.
Simon Rosenberg, a Democratic strategist who successfully predicted the outcome of the 2022 congressional elections, remains confident in President Biden’s chances of defeating Donald Trump in the upcoming election. He points to the structural changes within the Republican Party following the Dobbs Supreme Court decision as a key factor in his prediction, suggesting that a significant portion of the party has distanced itself from the MAGA movement. Rosenberg’s optimistic outlook is based on the trend of Democrats winning elections consistently over the past two years and the internal struggles faced by the Republican Party. Despite skepticism and concerns among Democrats, he remains steadfast in his belief in a positive outcome for Biden in November.
