The U.S. Federal Reserve is set to make a decision on interest rates on May 1, with current expectations that rates will remain at 5.25% to 5.5%. However, fixed income markets are anticipating summer rate cuts, with a forecasted chance of 12% for a cut according to Kalshi. The CME FedWatch Tool only predicts an 8% chance of a rate cut in May. The timing of any potential rate cut will depend on incoming economic data.
At the Fed’s March meeting, policymakers on the Federal Open Market Committee confirmed their expectations for interest rates to fall in 2024. Most anticipate two or three cuts this year, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighting the risks involved in monetary policy decisions. The Fed is considering rate cuts due to disinflation in the second half of 2023 and inflation currently below previous levels. However, the strength of the job market has led to patience in assessing the need for rate cuts, although there is still some recession risk.
Inflation data will play a key role in determining the timing of any rate cuts, with the Fed closely monitoring indicators to ensure inflation remains at sustainable levels. The Fed’s preferred Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation rate for January 2024 was at 2.4%, with updated data expected in February. Housing services inflation rates are expected to cool, while rising oil prices may offset this decline. Recent trends in deflation of certain goods prices may also be reversing.
Currently, interest rates are seen as restrictive, but the strong jobs market has allowed the Fed to be patient in considering rate cuts. The strong jobs market may also have an impact on inflation. It is unlikely that the Fed will cut rates at the April meeting, but depending on incoming data, the first rate cut could be months away. The Fed will be looking for signs of cooling in the jobs market and softening of services prices to confirm the timing of summer rate cuts.
In conclusion, the Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates steady in May, but markets are anticipating summer rate cuts in response to disinflation and below-target inflation rates. The Fed’s decision will be influenced by incoming economic data, particularly regarding inflation trends and the job market. While there is speculation about the timing of rate cuts, the Fed remains cautious in its approach and will closely monitor key indicators before making any changes to interest rates.
