In the first six months of 2024, crime in the United States decreased significantly, continuing a trend of falling crime rates that began in 2023. Preliminary figures released by the FBI on Monday revealed a 23% drop in murders, a 10% decrease in violent crime, and an 18% decline in reported rapes. Aggravated assaults decreased by 8%, robberies fell by 14%, and reported property crime was down 13%.
These new numbers are likely to be closely monitored by the campaigns of former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, as crime has become a major political issue in the 2024 presidential election. The FBI’s Quarterly Uniform Crime Report, which covers January through June, provides important information on crime trends. However, it is important to note that the data is voluntarily submitted by policing agencies, and the preliminary figures do not include data from Los Angeles and may only include partial figures from Chicago.
Crime analysts caution that quarterly data can be imprecise, as law enforcement agencies have the rest of the year to audit and correct any reporting errors before final annual figures are published by the FBI. Jeff Asher, a criminal justice analyst and co-founder of consulting firm AH Datalytics, noted that while other data sources also show declining crime rates, the degree of these declines may be overstated due to the methodology used by the FBI.
The release of the preliminary crime figures for the first half of 2024 comes shortly after the FBI issued a more comprehensive report on its finalized numbers for 2023, which showed a decrease in crime across various categories. The 2023 report, which included data from major cities across the country, highlighted a significant 12% drop in murder and nonnegligent manslaughter, as well as a 3% decrease in violent crime. This positive trend in falling crime rates is significant and demonstrates progress in addressing crime issues in the United States.
Overall, the decline in crime rates in the United States in 2024 is a positive development, as it reflects a continuation of the downward trend observed in the previous year. While these preliminary figures provide valuable insights into crime trends, it is essential to consider the limitations of the data, including the voluntary nature of reporting by law enforcement agencies and the potential for errors in quarterly data. Continued efforts to monitor and address crime issues will be crucial in sustaining this positive trend and ensuring the safety and security of communities across the country.
