Elon Musk, during Tesla’s annual shareholder meeting, confirmed plans for the humanoid robot Optimus to be in production by next year and estimated that it could drive Tesla’s valuation to $25 trillion. Despite Musk’s history of bold claims, experts believe this ambitious goal may not make the company profitable in the near future. Animesh Garg from Georgia Institute of Technology stated that while Musk’s timeline is aggressive, it is realistic from a release perspective, but the usefulness and robustness of the bot’s skills remain in question.
Jonathan Aitken from the University of Sheffield suggested that while Musk’s timeline for Optimus is challenging, it is not out of the question, with the success depending on the specific applications and details. Christian Hubicki from Florida State University expressed skepticism about the feasibility of Musk’s timeline, stating that it would be incredibly difficult to get the bots into the hands of customers who will find them useful within such a short timeframe. The overall consensus from experts is that while impressive progress has been made in humanoid robotics, a compelling use case and a massive market for the technology are not imminent.
One of the key unknowns surrounding humanoid robots, not just from Tesla but also competitors like Boston Dynamics and Figure AI, is reliability. Hubicki emphasized that the reliability of humanoid robots is crucial for their real-world applications, as the only useful robot is a reliable one. The technical challenges for humanoid robots include tasks such as movement and object grasping, which are taken for granted by humans but require significant advancements in hardware and software to be successfully replicated by robots.
Despite Musk’s claims that Optimus could eventually overshadow Tesla’s other products, experts doubt that humanoid robots will become a major revenue source for the company in the near future, let alone surpass its automotive business. AI advancements are driving progress in the field of humanoid robotics, but there is a lack of convincing use cases compared to emerging technologies like autonomous vehicles. Analyst Gordon Johnson criticized Musk’s claims about Optimus as “absurd” and suggested that there is no tangible product to support his ambitious projections.
Goldman Sachs analysts predict the global market for humanoid robots could reach $6 billion in the next decade, with the broader robotics market expected to be worth $218 billion by 2030. Musk’s net worth of $210.7 billion is heavily tied to Tesla, but legal challenges around his compensation package could impact the company’s future. Overall, while the potential for humanoid robots is significant, experts caution that a realistic timeline and clear use cases are essential for their success in the market.
