President Biden appears to be gaining in the polls following his State of the Union address last month, with a recent New York Times/Siena College poll showing him trailing Donald J. Trump by just one percentage point among likely voters nationwide. This represents a modest improvement for Biden since February, with the average post-State of the Union polls showing a 1.4-point increase for him over earlier surveys. While this shift may be small, it is significant against the backdrop of the last six months, during which Trump has maintained a lead in the polling.
Despite trailing in the polls, Biden’s slight increase in support over the last month suggests he may be benefiting from improving political conditions. Events such as the end of the primaries, the State of the Union address addressing concerns about his age, increased focus on abortion issues, the launch of the Biden campaign, and improved consumer sentiment may be contributing to his slight uptick in the polls. However, Biden’s approval rating remains in the upper 30s, with just 41 percent of voters having a favorable view of him.
If the trend of increasing support for Biden continues, it may become easier to imagine further gains ahead with seven months until the election. While an incumbent president with a healthy economy is typically favored to win, Biden’s current trailing position and low approval ratings indicate that he still faces challenges. In particular, nonwhite and young voters who are currently propelling Trump’s strength in the polling remain relatively less engaged.
Notably, the New York Times/Siena poll did not include Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as an option in the presidential race due to his limited ballot access in states. However, there is a possibility that Kennedy could gain greater ballot access in the future, prompting consideration for his inclusion in future polling. While only a small percentage of respondents expressed support for Kennedy in the current poll, future surveys may provide a clearer picture of his potential impact on the race.
As the 2024 election approaches, Biden’s slight gains in the polls suggest a potential shift in momentum, despite ongoing challenges such as low approval ratings and concerns about the economy. The coming months will be critical in determining whether Biden can build on his recent progress and secure the support needed for a successful reelection campaign.
