Former President Donald Trump is currently leading Joe Biden among independent voters in a new poll conducted five months ahead of the presidential election. Various polls have shown that the 2020 election will be closely contested, with Trump and Biden either tied or holding marginal leads. However, the ActiVote poll of 2,029 likely voters revealed that Trump is 22 points ahead of Biden among independent voters in a two-way matchup, with 61 percent of the vote share compared to Biden’s 39 percent. In a three-way poll that includes independent candidate Robert D. Kennedy Jr., Trump would still secure 47 percent of independent votes, while Biden would only garner 28 percent.
National polls are indicative of the nation’s overall sentiment but may not be decisive in determining the election outcome. The Electoral College system assigns a certain number of votes to each state based on its population, and a presidential candidate needs to secure 270 electoral votes to win. Winning the national popular vote does not guarantee victory, and swing states play a critical role in determining the election result. Independents are a crucial demographic, and even minor shifts among these voters could impact the outcome in key swing states. The upcoming debates between Biden and Trump, scheduled for June 27 and September 10, will likely play a significant role in shaping public opinion and influencing voter decisions.
Independent voters have shown varying levels of support for Trump and Biden in recent polls. While a May survey indicated that Trump had the edge among independents, with 54 percent supporting him compared to 42 percent for Biden, a subsequent June survey showed that Biden was leading among independents by 50 percent to Trump’s 48 percent, with 2 percent undecided. These fluctuations in support highlight the importance of engaging with and appealing to independent voters, who have the potential to sway the outcome in key battleground states. Both candidates will likely focus on winning over independents to secure their path to victory in the election.
The upcoming debates between Trump and Biden in Atlanta, Georgia, and thereafter on September 10, will offer a platform for both candidates to present their visions and policies to the American public. These debates will play a crucial role in shaping public opinion, particularly among undecided voters and independents. The outcome of the debates and subsequent campaign events will determine the momentum leading up to the election on November 5, where voters will have the final say in choosing the next president. The close race between Trump and Biden underscores the need for both candidates to appeal to a broad spectrum of voters, including independents, in order to secure victory and lead the nation for the next term.
Amidst the tight race between Trump and Biden, the focus on securing support from independent voters is crucial for both candidates. Independents play a significant role in determining the outcome of the election, particularly in swing states where the margin of victory can be narrow. While national polls provide a snapshot of voter sentiment, the Electoral College system and state-by-state breakdown of votes will ultimately decide the next president. The upcoming debates between Trump and Biden will provide a platform for both candidates to make their case to the American people and sway independent voters in their favor. As the election approaches, both campaigns will intensify efforts to engage with and win over independent voters to secure victory in November.
