Former President Donald Trump has increased his lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in the battleground state of Georgia, according to the latest polling from conservative pollster Rasmussen Reports. The survey, conducted between October 25 and 28, found Trump leading Harris 51 percent to 46 percent among likely voters in Georgia. This lead falls outside the poll’s margin of error of 3 percentage points. Trump’s momentum comes as the state sees a record-high turnout in early voting, with over 3.6 million people having cast a ballot so far.
Georgia is considered a “must-win” state for Trump, who won it over Hillary Clinton in 2016 but lost to President Joe Biden in 2020 by a narrow margin. According to polling analysis site FiveThirtyEight, Trump is favored to win Georgia over Harris, with a 64 percent chance of securing the state’s 16 electoral votes. While Real Clear Polling (RCP) considers Georgia a “toss-up” race, Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight gives Trump a 67 percent chance of winning the state. RCP’s tracking shows Trump leading by 2.6 points on average in Georgia, while FiveThirtyEight’s analysis puts his lead at 1.7 points.
Despite Trump’s lead in Georgia, Harris has maintained a small lead across national polls as Election Day approaches, with an average lead of 1.2 points over Trump. This gap has closed from the end of September when Harris was leading by 2.8 points on average. Polling expert Nate Silver notes that polling in Georgia has shifted toward Trump by 0.8 points over the past month. Rasmussen Reports, the pollster showing Trump’s lead in Georgia, is not included in FiveThirtyEight’s analysis due to not meeting its requirements, but it is seen as leaning in favor of Republican and conservative politicians.
The results from Rasmussen Reports show a clear increase in support for Trump in Georgia over the past month, with the former president now holding a solid lead over Vice President Harris. As Election Day approaches, the state’s high turnout in early voting could play a significant role in determining the outcome of the 2024 presidential election. While Georgia is seen as a key battleground state, with Trump needing to win it in order to secure reelection, Harris is also maintaining a small lead in national polls as the race tightens across the country.
