A new study conducted by a team of scientists from North Carolina State University, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the University of Colorado, Boulder, and Princeton University aimed to establish processes to determine whether extreme weather events, such as the 2023 heat wave in Texas and Louisiana, are directly attributable to climate change. The researchers’ main goal is to inform affected communities about whether they can expect more events like this in the future, allowing them to make informed decisions about infrastructure and rebuilding after such events. The study focused on the extreme heat wave in Texas and Louisiana in 2023, which lasted almost the entire summer and occurred within the daytime warming hole – an area in the central U.S. where temperatures have not warmed at the same rate due to increased precipitation.
The scientists used a two-step process to assess whether the 2023 heat wave was an anomaly or part of a new pattern related to climate change. First, they analyzed historical data from heat monitoring stations across the U.S. over the past 100 years to determine the extent of the anomaly in 2023. Then, they compared this data with predictions from computer models to assess whether climate change played a role in the event. The results indicated that the heat wave in 2023 was directly related to climate change, as a similar drought would not have been as hot 50 years ago. This suggests that future heat waves may become even hotter due to climate change.
The methods established in this study will be used to determine the role of climate change in future extreme weather events, particularly heat waves. By evaluating historical data and comparing it with predictive models, researchers can assess the impact of climate change on these events and inform communities about potential future risks. The research was published in Environmental Research: Climate and was supported by NOAA’s Climate Program Office and the U.S. Department of Commerce. Co-authors of the study include research associates and professors from NC State, NOAA, the University of Colorado Boulder, and Princeton University, as well as scientists from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory.
The study highlights the importance of establishing processes to evaluate extreme weather events and determine their relationship to climate change. By analyzing historical data and predictive models, researchers can identify patterns and trends that indicate the impact of climate change on specific events, such as heat waves. This information is crucial for communities to understand the risks they face and make informed decisions about how to prepare and adapt to future extreme weather events. The methods developed in this study will be valuable for assessing the role of climate change in future events and providing timely information to affected communities.
Overall, the study focused on the 2023 heat wave in Texas and Louisiana as a test case for establishing processes to determine whether extreme weather events are directly attributable to climate change. By analyzing historical data and predictive models, the researchers were able to determine that the heat wave in 2023 was directly related to climate change. This suggests that future heat waves may become even hotter as a result of climate change. The methods developed in this study will be used to assess the role of climate change in future events and provide valuable information to communities to help them prepare for and adapt to potential risks.