Former President Donald Trump is experiencing a surge in Pennsylvania as Democrats have lost ground among registered voters in this crucial swing state. Data from L2 Data, a political data firm, shows that more than 66,000 people registered to vote in Pennsylvania in August, with Democrats leading new voter registrations at 25,314, compared to 23,839 for Republicans. This year through August, Republicans have registered more voters in the state than Democrats, with Republicans registering over 102,000 new voters and Democrats registering about 96,000.
While Democrats still maintain a lead of 338,000 total registered voters statewide, this margin is the slimmest they have had in decades and less than half of their advantage in 2016. In order to win the White House in November, Trump needs to carry at least one of the three swing states that make up the so-called blue wall – Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin – to secure the necessary 270 Electoral College votes. Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, is narrowly leading in all three states, with Pennsylvania being considered the closest race among them.
Some Democratic lawmakers have expressed concerns that pollsters are underestimating Trump’s support in Pennsylvania and other battleground states, similar to what happened in 2016 and 2020. Senator John Fetterman stated that polling has been seriously damaged since 2016 and emphasized that Trump will be a tough competitor in Pennsylvania. Kush Desai, the Trump campaign’s spokesperson for Pennsylvania, also believes that polls underestimate support for the former president in the state, and argues that the American people have a clear choice in this election.
The Trump campaign asserts that Americans have the choice between another four years of what they perceive as rising prices, open borders, and incompetence under Harris, or a return to the peace, prosperity, and stability of the Trump administration. Desai predicts that the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania will once again prove itself to be “TRUMP COUNTRY” in November. The race in Pennsylvania is crucial for both Trump and Harris, as carrying the state could determine the outcome of the election, with Trump needing to secure at least one of the swing states to win, and Harris looking to win all three to secure victory without needing to win any other battleground state.
