In a crucial Senate race in Maryland, a recent poll showed Republican Larry Hogan and Democrat Angela Alsobrooks tied in terms of voter favorability, despite Vice President Kamala Harris being at the top of the ticket. The AARP poll, conducted between August 14-20, surveyed 1,258 likely voters and had a margin of error of 4 percent. Hogan, a former governor of Maryland, is well-liked for his bipartisan approach and accomplishments during his tenure in office, including lowering taxes, increasing reserves, and improving the state’s economy. The Democratic candidate for president has historically won in Maryland, including in the 2020 election where Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump.
The AARP poll showed interesting trends in voter preferences for Hogan and Alsobrooks. Hogan is favored among voters aged 50-64, all men, all voters aged 18-34, and independents, with significant margins. He also holds an advantage among swing voters over 50. On the other hand, Alsobrooks is preferred by Black voters over 50 and has small leads among all women, voters aged 65 and over, and voters aged 35-49. These demographic preferences present challenges for both candidates as they seek to secure the Senate seat.
Harris’ recent surge of momentum following Biden’s endorsement and campaign dropout has put her in a favorable position in national polls, especially in key battleground states. However, limited polling specifically for Maryland shows her with comfortable leads over Trump in the presidential race but more mixed results for the Senate race. While Alsobrooks had a lead in previous polls, the AARP poll indicating a tie has raised concerns for Democrats seeking to retain control of the Senate in 2024.
Republicans are expected to make gains in the Senate, with a likely pickup in West Virginia where Senator Joe Manchin is not seeking reelection. A close race in Maryland could further complicate Democratic efforts to maintain control of the chamber. Both Hogan and Alsobrooks will need to appeal to a diverse range of voters to secure victory, with Hogan’s bipartisan record and economic accomplishments balancing against Alsobrooks’ support among key demographic groups.
The outcome of the Maryland Senate race is crucial for both parties as they seek to influence legislation and policy direction in the coming years. Hogan and Alsobrooks will need to navigate a competitive landscape and appeal to voters on a range of issues, from healthcare and education to the economy and the environment. With the 2024 election map favoring Republicans, Democrats face an uphill battle in maintaining control of the Senate, making Maryland a key battleground state to watch in the upcoming election cycle.
