A recent poll conducted by Siena College in New York shows former President Trump within single digits of President Biden, causing alarm for Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf. Sheinkopf attributes this dissatisfaction among voters to concerns about taxes, crime, and disorder. He notes that the out party tends to benefit in times of disorder, which could explain the unexpected support for Trump in the deep blue state of New York. The eight percentage-point spread between Biden and Trump in the poll indicates that a significant number of voters dislike both candidates, leading to uncertainty among voters in making a decision.
The poll results also reveal that while Biden maintains the support of three-quarters of Democrats, Trump has strong backing from 85% of Republicans and leads Biden among independents. Despite a gender gap favoring Biden, with women supporting him over Trump, men show more support for the former president. While Biden holds a lead among non-White voters, Trump is able to garner support from Black and Latino voters as well. Biden’s job approval rating and favorability ratings are at their lowest yet recorded by Siena College, signaling potential trouble for the incumbent president.
Former GOP Rep. Lee Zeldin, who recently ran for governor, sees the poll results as consistent with other recent polls showing Biden’s decline in popularity in New York. Zeldin believes that the issues concerning New Yorkers, such as immigration and the economy, have shifted to the right, benefitting the Republican Party. He acknowledges that if New York is polling this close, it could bode well for polling in other states with a closer party registration between Republicans and Democrats.
Despite Trump’s insistence that he will win New York in the upcoming election, Sheinkopf remains skeptical and believes Trump will need to convince voters that he is not reckless. Biden, on the other hand, will need to demonstrate strength and clear communication in order to perform well in the CNN Presidential Debate in Atlanta. The unique circumstances of having a convicted felon in the race and the President of the United States facing off present an unprecedented situation that will be closely watched by voters.
The upcoming election in November could be historic for a GOP presidential candidate in New York, with potential implications for Biden’s reelection prospects. The poll results reflect a growing dissatisfaction among voters and uncertainty in making a decision between the two candidates. Both Biden and Trump will need to make compelling cases for their campaigns, addressing the concerns of voters and demonstrating their ability to lead effectively. The outcome of the election will depend on how well each candidate is able to communicate their message and connect with voters in New York and beyond.
