In a speech in Michigan, former President Donald Trump falsely claimed that US crime statistics are only going up. However, in reality, most US crime numbers went down last year, including one of the largest national declines in murder ever recorded. Trump focused on crime perpetrated by people who illegally entered the US and compared the situation to Venezuela, where crime supposedly fell amid emigration. The reality is that crime statistics in the US decreased in 2023, with reported violent crime and property crime dropping as well. In fact, the decline in murder rates in 2023 would be the single biggest one-year drop on record in US data.
Anna Harvey, a political science professor and director of the Public Safety Lab at New York University, debunked Trump’s claim that crime rates are only going up. While violent crime increased during the last year of Trump’s presidency, it has been falling during President Biden’s tenure. Not all crimes are reported, and not all communities experienced declines in murder or violent crime in 2023. However, overall, national numbers for various crimes, including murder, rape, aggravated assault, robbery, and arson, declined in 2023, refuting Trump’s assertion that crime statistics are only rising.
There were some exceptions to the overall decrease in crime numbers, such as a significant increase in big-city auto thefts, driven by thefts of specific car models that were easy to steal. However, the declines in national numbers for different types of crimes in 2023 indicate that Trump’s claim about crime statistics only going up is inaccurate. According to crime data expert Jeff Asher, the available data suggests that national rates of murder and overall violent crime were lower in 2023 than they were under Trump in 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Reported violent crime in the US has decreased significantly since the early 1990s, with preliminary data suggesting that the rate of reported violent crime in 2023 was either the lowest since the late 1960s or close to it. Asher, co-founder of the firm AH Datalytics, stated that reported violent crime has fallen since 2020, with the reported violent crime rate likely at or below 2019 levels in 2023. While the national murder rate may have been slightly above 2019 levels, it was well below the levels seen in 2020. Overall, the available evidence shows a downward trend in reported violent crime in the US.
