CNN data reporter Harry Enten recently warned that the polling may be underestimating Vice President Kamala Harris rather than former President Trump, who has been historically underestimated in previous election cycles. Enten suggested that it would be unprecedented for the polls to underestimate Trump for a third time, as pollsters usually make adjustments to correct past mistakes. However, Enten pointed out that the polls have underestimated Democrats in key swing states in the past, which could have implications for Harris in future elections.
Enten highlighted the 2022 midterm elections, where Democrats exceeded expectations in states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The average poll in these states underestimated Democrats by four points, indicating that polling errors can have a significant impact on election outcomes. Enten suggested that if the polls continue to underestimate Democrats as they did in 2022, Harris could potentially win in a landslide victory. This data raises the question of whether Harris may be underestimated in future elections, rather than Trump, who has been the focus of polling errors in the past.
While many are anticipating that Trump will once again be underestimated by the polls in upcoming elections, Enten cautioned against overlooking the possibility that Harris could also be underestimated. He noted that the race for the White House in key swing states is currently tied between Harris and Trump, and there is evidence to suggest that polling has previously underestimated both candidates. Enten’s analysis challenges the prevailing belief that the polls will once again fail to accurately predict Trump’s electoral performance, suggesting that Harris may also be a candidate to watch in future elections.
Polling expert Nate Silver echoed Enten’s concerns, warning in August that Trump has been consistently underestimated in the last two elections. This pattern of polling errors has raised doubts about the accuracy of election polls and their ability to predict the outcomes of tight races. Enten’s analysis of the data, which shows a close race between Harris and Trump in key swing states, further underscores the need for caution when interpreting polling results and making predictions about future election outcomes.
In early October, Enten raised the possibility that if the polls are off like they were in 2020, Trump could win the election in a landslide with 312 electoral votes. This scenario would involve Trump carrying all the Great Lake battleground states as well as other states where he had a lead, such as Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia. Enten’s prediction underscores the uncertainty surrounding election polling and the potential for significant deviations between poll results and actual election outcomes.
Overall, Enten’s analysis of the polling data suggests that there is a possibility that Vice President Kamala Harris may be underestimated in future elections, challenging the prevailing narrative that former President Donald Trump will once again be the focus of polling errors. By examining past polling trends and highlighting the potential for underestimated candidates in key swing states, Enten’s analysis serves as a reminder of the limitations of election polling and the need for caution when predicting election outcomes based on poll results.
